Let’s call some spades.
First, no one is going to war in South China Sea. Not because Chinese President Xi Jinping was kidding when he told his Philippine counterpart Rodrigo Duterte last week that, in so many words, there would be war if the Philippines implemented the ruling last July by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague voiding Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim over most of the South China Sea.
Rather, all sides seem sensible enough to keep talking about sovereign and security interests, rather than forcibly asserting them. China doesn’t want to play bully or drive its neighbors to Uncle Sam, and they won’t spoil for a fight they can’t win.
Plus: Last week’s agreements in separate talks between China and the Philippines, and between Beijing and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), augur well for negotiation, not confrontation.
Manila and Beijing announced terms of reference for maritime cooperation and security, and a framework for an Asean-China Code of Conduct for disputed areas got the nod at the meeting in Guiyang, Southwest China.
The conciliatory approach certainly got more out of Beijing than The Hague case, though some quarters in Manila still want to sue over Xi’s reported war threat.
As for the US plan to move 60 percent of its naval assets to East Asia, and conduct sailings to challenge Chinese island building in the Spratlys, Washington is backing off for now. It needs Beijing’s help in a far bigger security worry: North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles program, which could threaten America.
Beijing wins over Asean
Second, Beijing is getting its way in the South China Sea. It has built massive military-capable facilities on reclaimed islands in Fiery Cross and Mischief Reefs, enhancing its ability to protect vital sea-lanes—China’s most urgent objective in the South China Sea, through which four-fifths of its imported oil passes.
Rival claimants are talking and doing deals with Beijing. Despite past shooting wars with China, Vietnam has maintained cordial ties, with regular top-level meetings between their leaders.
As one of 29 national leaders in Beijing’s Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation a week ago, Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang said stronger cooperation in all spheres between Vietnam and China is critical to each country’s development, bringing about economic benefits and reinforcing mutual trust and friendship, the Hanoi Times reported.
President Duterte has reversed his predecessor’s US-backed confrontational policy toward China. At his October state visit to Beijing, Duterte declared “separation” from his country’s longtime ally, and called for “alliance” with Beijing and Moscow.
Malaysia is also swinging to China. After Washington regulators raised concerns about Kuala Lumpur’s scandal-hit IMDB state fund, adding pressure on Prime Minister Najib Razak, the embattled PM turned to Beijing.
On top of property and infrastructure projects in Malaysia already under way, the two countries are eyeing ports development along the Malay Peninsula, high-speed trains from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore, joint exploration by state oil companies, and a regional counterterrorism center in Johor near Singapore.
So, who’s left in Asean to be nasty to Beijing?
Playing Mr. Nice Giant
Third spade: China will be accommodating to Asean.
Huh? After wooing once-contentious neighbors and with America not rocking the regional boat, at least for now, why must Beijing play Mr. Nice Giant to Asean?
Because it aims to woo the world.
“China’s Belt and Road Forum,” headlined the Los Angeles Times, “lays groundwork for a new global order”. So do other Beijing-led initiatives like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Regional Cooperation Economic Program trade liberalization talks. Plus: Beijing has picked up where Washington under President Donald J. Trump left off at the Paris climate-change accord.
In sum, China is angling for world stature just when America and Europe are hobbled somewhat. In this audition of sorts for a global leadership role, playing fair, sharing wealth and not throwing one’s weight around are crucial to win friends and influence nations.
So, apart from giving up territory and compromising security, which no country ever does willingly, China will generally accommodate the Philippines, Asean and other parties at the negotiating tables.
For Manila, the immediate objective in its bilaterals are protocols to safeguard its security and territory, and prevent Chinese encroachments—which could be covered by the maritime cooperation and security parameters agreed last week with Beijing.
For Asean, the Code of Conduct is the prize for this year, so that confrontation and militarization are minimized or managed.
But won’t China use this time of peace with Asean to build up its forces, so it can eventually grab the territory it wants?
Yes, that’s probably Beijing’s plan. Which is why Asean should also use this time of harmony and rising prosperity to power up, join forces—and win the respect of giants.