The country’s trade balance likely posted a surplus of $100 million in February due to “favorable base effects,” according to the latest research insight of international bank Standard Chartered.
The projected February surplus is an improvement from the $751- million deficit recorded in January, based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
Standard Chartered, however, said import growth in February was probably dragged down by lower
international petroleum prices, which could slash data on oil imports.
“However, we expect electronic-goods imports to increase by double digits for a third consecutive month, and to continue their strong performance,” Standard Chartered said.
“We expect the trade balance to benefit from lower import growth, although sluggish export growth may constrain the upside near-term,” it added.
In a separate research note, titled The Market Call released on Monday, First Metro Investment Corp. and the University of Asia and the Pacific said that, while the quantitative easing in the euro zone ramped up demand for imports, the country has yet to feel the impact of the economic recovery of advanced economies on exports.
Because of this, the report said export growth from January to June may only be at single digit. Philippine exports are likely to grow again by double digits in the second half of 2015. The PSA will be announcing the February trade data today.
Data from the PSA showed that the country’s total imports in January declined by 14.2 percent to $5.1 billion, from $5.95 billion recorded in the same period last year.
The PSA said the decline in total imports for January was due to the slowdown in the country’s purchase of major commodities, which include transport equipment, fuels, iron and steel, organic and inorganic chemicals, and plastics.
The balance of trade in goods in January registered a deficit of $751.54 million, lower than the $1.57-billion trade deficit in the same period last year.