The continuing deadly combat circumstances in Marawi City have created a situation for the Philippines where we may be unable to see the “forest” because there are too many “trees” in the way. Certainly, everything related is complex and has moved well into uncharted territory.
An issue before the Supreme Court is the legal semantic discussion of the definition of “rebellion” as regards the constitutional circumstances that allow the President to declare a state of martial law. Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno accurately said recently, “We need to find out how we can get out of this emergency situation by trying to define for the President—with all due respect—what can be done and what cannot be done.”
Others have their own view on the impact on the foreign relations of the Philippines. Bayan Secretary-General Renato Reyes said, “The US is now using the ISIS threat as pretext for permanent basing and increased US military intervention in the Philippines, in a clear effort to counter whatever is left of President Duterte’s pronouncement of upholding an independent foreign policy.” While it may be easy to dismiss Reyes’s comments as agenda-driven, bordering on a conspiracy theory, in this day and age, no one really knows what is lurking behind the geopolitical curtain.
The New York City press has devoted more ink and paper to reporting and commenting—mainly commenting—on the Philippines than they probably have in the combined decades since the Edsa Revolution. The New York Times newspaper has had over 1,000 articles and opinion pieces about the Philippines in the past 12 months compared to about less than 1,000 during all of 2014 and 2015 together. We are definitely in the spotlight.
However, the 800-pound gorilla in the room from which all the other issues emanate and is of the most singular importance is the extent that the extreme Islamic group, known by the acronym ISIS, wants a base of operations in Mindanao.
Indonesia, the largest Muslim country on earth, is battling with its own problems. Malaysia is deeply worried that it is next on the list. These nations’ concerns come from the undeniable fact that about 1,000 of their own citizens traveled to the Middle East to fight with ISIS. Strategic security intelligence service company The Soufan Group puts that number closer to 2,000. With many of these fighters being pushed out of the areas previously controlled by ISIS, they are returning to their home countries.
As of March, a report said that “currently there exists no formal ISIS presence in Southeast Asia and there is little to suggest a significant ISIS threat to the region”. Before Marawi, Zachary M. Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who specializes in Southeast Asian security issues, said, “Southeast Asia was never a priority for ISIS, and it is hard for me to make the case that fighting for survival in Iraq and Syria, or at least trying not to lose any more territory, that they will stay focused on Southeast Asia”. Now, Rohan Gunaratna, the head of Singapore’s International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research writes, “We see the southern Philippines emerging as an important venue for foreign terrorist fighters.”
A strong and ongoing discussion on the martial-law declaration is important. So also is the involvement of the US and other countries as we prepare for joint sea patrols with Indonesia and Malaysia. However, what does not have any room in the issue is partisan local politics.
1 comment