When Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory late last year in Myanmar’s first national vote since a nominally civilian government was allowed to work in 2011, ending nearly 50 years of military rule, the world expected the country’s democracy icon to finally take the helm of government. That’s because her party will control the next parliament and can choose the next president.
As things stand, however, Suu Kyi can’t become president. Article 59 (F) of the Myanmar constitution states that if one of your “legitimate children…owes allegiance to a foreign power” you are disqualified. That covers both Suu Kyi’s sons Kim and Alexander, who carry British passports. Her long-shot chance is to change this provision of the country’s basic law. But changing the constitution is impossible without the support of the unelected army representatives.
Myanmar’s 2008 constitution sets out a complex process whereby the Hluttaw (Parliament) chooses a president. First, the Hluttaw will divide into three groups: the elected representatives of the Lower House, the elected representatives of the Upper House, and the unelected army representatives. Each group puts forward a candidate and then the three of them face a vote in a joint session that includes all the elected and unelected representatives of both Houses. The winner becomes president and the two losers automatically become vice presidents.
Given the scale of the NLD win in the national elections, Suu Kyi’s party will be able to nominate two of the three candidates and then ensure that one of their bets takes the top job. It’s certainly possible that the NLD might nominate Suu Kyi even if she didn’t meet the constitutional criteria.
There are encouraging signs this will happen. After Parliament Chairman Mann Win Khaing Than announced on Monday the Upper House, the Lower House and the military will have to select one candidate each for the three posts and submit them to parliament on March 17, observers said there are growing signs that Suu Kyi’s talks with the military to remove the constitutional hurdle blocking her path can be completed in March.
Reports from the Associated Press (AP) confirmed that Suu Kyi is negotiating with Commander in Chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing on having the clause suspended. The constitutional provision can be legally scrapped through a 75 percent plus one vote in Parliament. The military holds 25 percent of seats in parliament—all unelected—which means the NLD cannot remove the constitutional hurdle on its own.
The AP reported that in separate but identical broadcasts late Sunday, Sky Net and Myanmar National Television, both pro-government, said “positive results could come out on the negotiation for the suspension of Article 59 [F] of the constitution.”
Suu Kyi earlier said even if she does not become president she would run the country from behind the scenes. Her partymates, however, would prefer that the 70-year-old Nobel peace laureate would lead Myanmar on its march to a democratic and civilian government.