THE Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) downgraded its palay production forecast for the first quarter to 4.47 million metric tons (MMT) due to the dry spell affecting major rice-producing areas in the country.
In its report titled “Updates on Palay and Corn Forecasts,” the PSA said its latest projection for unmilled rice output is 2.6 percent below the January 2015 round forecast of 4.59 MMT.
“Harvest area may contract to 1.16 million hectares from 1.17 million hectares. Yield may decrease from 3.93 metric tons [MT] per hectare to 3.85 MT per hectare,” the report read.
The PSA attributed this to insufficient water supply and intense heat during the vegetative and reproductive stages of the water-loving crop in Iloilo, Tarlac, Camarines Sur, South Cotabato and Aklan.
“Contraction in harvest area and drop in yield could [also] be the result of damages brought about by typhoons Seniang [international name Jangmi] in Capiz and Negros Occidental last December 2014 and Amang [international code name Mekkhala] in January,” the report read.
The PSA said around 570,000 hectares of standing crop have been harvested.
The projected palay output of 4.59 MMT in January to March, however, is 3.9 percent higher than last year’s output of 4.31 MMT.
Meanwhile, the PSA said corn production for the first quarter may reach 2.41 MMT, or 1.5 percent lower than the January 2015 forecast of 2.44 MMT. The latest figure, however, is 5.7 percent higher than last year’s level of 2.28 MMT.
“Harvest area may decline by 0.2 percent, from 720,000 hectares to 718,000 hectares. Yield may drop from 3.39 MT to 3.35 MT per hectare,” the report read.
The PSA said the probable decrease in output could be attributed to the adverse effects of intense heat and insufficient water supply to crops in Iloilo, South Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Camarines Sur, Davao del Sur and Sarangani.
The Department of Agriculture has yet to release its quarterly report titled “Performance of Agriculture” which details the actual output of the farm and fishery sectors.