LUZON is assured of more than 500 megawatts (MW) of additional power-generation capacity during the summer months of 2016. But the risk of power outage is always present.
“It’s not as bad as what we expected last summer, because we added new plants,” said Sen. Sergio Osmeña III, chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy, when asked to comment on an earlier pronouncement of Department of Energy (DOE) officials, who said that power supply could be tight next year.
During last week’s budget hearing, DOE Officer in Charge Zenaida Y. Monsada mentioned a possible tight power-supply situation in Luzon next year, based on assumptions. However, she said, this assumption could change, as power producers assured that more capacity will be added to the grid.
Osmeña agreed.
He said that the additional capacity would come from the following power plants that will be switched on this year: the 97-MW Avion open-cycle natural-gas-fired power plant of First Gen Corp. of the Lopez group; the 135-MW coal power plant of South Luzon Thermal Energy Corp.; and the 150-MW coal plant of
Semirara Mining and Power Corp. of the Consunji Group.
Osmeña cited another 150 MW of additional capacity on top of the three power projects he mentioned.
“We’re adding about 530 MW of additional power, not counting the small renewable energy. Our demand will increase by about 400 MW from March 2015 to March 2016. So, we will be a little bit better than we were this year, but not by much. We will be more comfortable in 2017; but we will really be comfortable by 2018,” Osmeña said.
Monsada said last week that the available generating capacity nationwide stands at 13,300 mW as against an anticipated demand of 12,000 mW.
She said Luzon has 9,800 mW with demand at 8,900 MW, while the Visayas has 1,800 mW as against a demand of 1,600 mW. Supply in Mindanao stands at 1,700 mW against an anticipated demand of 1,500 mW.
Monsada, who was also present during the recent budget hearing at the House of Representatives, told congressmen there is no assurance that there will not be any power-outage incidents next year.
“We cannot predict a sudden plant breakdown,” she said, while adding that if it’s just one or two small power plants that will conk out, supply won’t be affected because there is a reserve power.
She said the DOE leads a government task force that would ensure that the nation would have enough and reliable electricity during the election period.
“We are working closely with all stakeholders so there would be no power outages,” she stressed.
For his part, Osmeña said there’s always a risk of brownout even if there is enough supply. “We don’t know when a power plant or power plants will go offline for unknown reasons. As they grow older, there is a possibility that they will break down and we don’t know when that will happen,” he explained.
A possible scenario, Osmeña predicted, could be an hour or two of brownout in a day. “If the expected 500-mW [excess] won’t happen this year, then we will be short. And if that happens, there is almost a 100-percent chance that there may be a one hour or two hours of brownout because demand will grow by about 400 mW,” he said.
What worries the DOE more is the power situation in Mindanao given the extended El Niño.
“It would have minimal impact on electricity supply in Luzon and the Visayas. But it will be different in Mindanao,” Monsada said.
Based on the initial simulation of the DOE, “in the absence of any increase in forced outages in the power plants for Luzon and the Visayas, the power situation will be manageable.”
For Mindanao, however, the worst could be felt toward the end of 2015 up until the first quarter of 2016 since the island largely relies on hydroelectricity generated by several plants in the Agus river area in the Lanao provinces.
The DOE has already requested operators of hydropower plants to provide a weekly average available capacity since hydro plants will be the most affected by the impact of the El Niño.
The DOE will continue to provide an updated simulation of the power outlook with El Niño scenario once it has gathered the data and finalized the simulation.
Last week DOE Undersecretary Loreta Ayson released an action plan to mitigate the impact of El Niño.
Among the plans drawn up include intensified energy efficiency and conservation campaigns; implementation of the Interruptible Load Program; ensuring minimal forced outages of power plants; managing the maintenance schedules of power plants, transmission and distribution facilities; optimization of the dispatch protocol for power plants with hydropower plants serving as peaking requirement; and deployment of modular generator sets.
The agency has also created “Energy Task Force on El Niño” to better address the power-supply problem in Mindanao, which is largely dependent on hydroelectric power plants.
The members of the task force include the DOE, National Power Corp., Energy Regulatory Commission, power generators, private distribution utilities and electric cooperatives.
“For Mindanao, the power situation will be a challenge to the event of moderate to severe El Niño since the share of the hydropower plants in Mindanao accounts for 50 percent and 42 percent in the power-generation mix in 2014 and January to June 2015, respectively,” Ayson said.
Moreover, the DOE has coordinated with the National Renewable Energy Board to verify the capacity used for variable renewable-energy sources, such as solar, wind and biomass, from October 2015 to June 2016.