Philippine sugar production for the current marketing year (MY) ending on November 30 could go up to 2.25 million metric tons (MMT), from 2.135 MMT recorded a year ago, according to a Global Agriculture Information Network (Gain) report.
The Gain report, which was published recently by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila, said the hike in output would be due to favorable weather and the slight expansion in sugarcane areas.
“Post forecasts MY 2016/2017 raw sugar output to reach 2.25 MMT as experts foresee a return to traditional production levels with a return to more normal weather conditions after a period of prolonged drought,” the
report read.
Citing data from the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), the report noted sugarcane production area in crop year (CY) 2016-2017 increased to 419,000 hectares from 412,000 hectaresin the previous CY.
This is expected to result in more cane production, which could reach 23.5 MMT, slightly higher than the 23.25 MMT milled in the previous crop year, according to the report.
The sugar-production forecast of the FAS in Manila is based on the US MY for sugar, which starts on December 1. The CY for sugar, in the Philippines starts on September 1.
The FAS projection is consistent with the SRA’s production forecast for the current CY, which would end on August 31.
For MY 2017/2018, the report noted Philippine sugar production would increase slightly to 2.3 MMT. “Industry contacts report increasing difficulty in finding farm labor to harvest the cane, which may affect the actual amount of cane harvested.”
The report also noted that domestic consumption of cane sugar in MY 2016/2017 would increase to 2.2 MMT, or 2.8 percent higher than the recorded consumption volume of 2.14 MMT in previous market year, according to report.
“Consumption of cane sugar should rise to 2.2 MMT in MY 2016/2017, if anticipated restrictions on the importation of high fructose corn syrup [HFCS] are implemented, or if prices of domestic sugar drop to lower levels,” the report read.
“The Philippine Department of Agriculture and beverage manufacturers have agreed on a phase-in period for the new HFCS guidelines for the release of imported HFCS in to the market,” it added.
Due to expansion of the food processing beverage manufacturing sector, demand for sugar and/or sugar substitutes is anticipated to increase. FAS projected Philippine sugar imports in MY 2016/2017 would settle at around 100,000 metric tons (MT), 56.5 percent lower than the 230,000 MT imported in MY 2015/2016.
“MY 2016/2017 sugar imports are expected to decrease significantly to about 100,000 MT due to increased production and an ample domestic supply of sugar due to slow withdrawal,” the report read.