During his childhood days, newly appointed Ambassador to Beijing Jose Santiago L. Santa Romana recalled that China, with its billion-plus population, was still a sleeping giant and a third-world country.
“I never imagined that I will be representing the Philippines [as an envoy]. I remember…[China] then was a backward country,” the former student leader from the De La Salle University during the so-called First Quarter Storm in the 1970s said in an interview at the sidelines of a recent breakfast forum in Manila.
The appointment of Santa Romana as the Philippine envoy to China comes amid “interesting” times, as the two countries are trying to settle simmering territorial dispute in the West Philippine Sea, and for the Chinese, the South China Sea. Nevertheless, Santa Romana is optimistic on the diplomatic relations between Beijing and Manila.
“Overall, the challenge ahead of us is quite daunting. But, I think, the prospects for Philippines-China relations are bright in the short term and [the] coming years,” he said.
“The key, however, is how to proceed and make sure that the issues can drive the alliance relationship forward and, at the same time, maintain vigilance on the issues that divide us,” said Santa Romana, a veteran journalist who stayed and worked for 38 years in Beijing.
Citing lessons from history, he pointed to Vietnam as an example on how it was able to settle a border war with China, a rising global power in the late-1970s.
In the winter of 1978 China, then under the helm of Premier Deng Xiaoping, wanted to teach Vietnam a “lesson,” by sending more than 80,000 Chinese troops across the border into Vietnam.
Furthermore, the incumbent minister asserted that the Chinese will easily pulverize the Vietnamese army and take Hanoi in a week. However, the inexperienced and underequipped People’s Liberation Army (PLA) met a strong resistance from battle-tested Vietnamese soldiers. As a result, the Chinese were routed by local militia from positions that were used for centuries against invaders from the north. Beijing recalled its troops six weeks later, after suffering heavy losses.
Santa Romana emphasized that political relations are important to settle, like the conflict between China and Vietnam. The implosion of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) helped in solving the conflict, since Vietnam was backed by the USSR during the 1970s. Although the dispute took eight years to settle, he said it was worth exploring the political option.
Trump’s Asia ‘pivot’
Prof. Jay Batongbacal of the University of the Philippines believes the administration of President Donald J. Trump will continue the pivot to Asia policy, but this time with a different flavor. “The Trump administration will have a strong emphasis on the military component,” he stressed.
“Expect the Americans to be more assertive to counter the aggressive Chinese military buildup in the South China Sea,” he added.
Under the leadership of former President Barack Obama, the US government focused on the economy, as it tried to push for the establishment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. Trump rejected the agreement, calling it a “horrible” idea.
In February 2016, 12 countries that border the Pacific Ocean signed up for the TPP, representing roughly 40 percent of the world’s economic output, according to a British Broadcasting Corp. report.
“The pact aimed to deepen economic ties between these nations, slashing tariffs and fostering trade to boost growth. Members had also hoped to foster a closer relationship on economic policies and regulation,” the BBC report added.
Moreover, the agreement was crafted like a counterpart of the European Union. However, the 12 nations needed to ratify it to enable the program to function.
The TPP would have strengthened the US position in the Asia-Pacific region, where China is growing in influence. But critics labelled the TPP as a clandestine scheme designed to benefit business and other countries to the detriment of American jobs and national sovereignty.
Given the composition of Trump’s Cabinet, Batongbacal said Washington will be more assertive in projecting power in the region. For instance, the appointment of Michael Pompeo as the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) will see a tougher stand from Washington against perceived and real enemies. Moreover, the appointment of retired Marine General James Mattis as secretary of defense indicates that Washington is now hell bent in projecting military power in the Asian region.
Despite the Chinese military buildup, Batongbacal lamented the Philippines is not addressing the vital need to beef up its external defense capabilities. Instead, Manila is concentrating on enhancing its internal security operability. “The government must realize at this point that beefing up external defense is quite important because of the Philippine sea,” he pointed out.
Earlier, President Duterte said the Philippines will not conduct the Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (Carat) and the Amphibious Landing Exercise, or Phiblex. Instead, the government will be engaging in counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HA/DR), and engineering and civic action projects.
Batongbacal said the Duterte administration is lukewarm to the Carat, a bilateral naval exercise conducted between the Philippine and American naval forces to boost interoperability, coordination and cooperation of the two forces, because it provokes the Chinese government.
For the Philippines to develop a genuine and comprehensive defense program, Batongbacal said there must be economic support to sustain the development of the country’s defense capabilities. He also warned that severing the defense ties with the traditional allies will pose big challenges for the country.
Joint development and sharing of resources
Santa Romana said there will be joint talks between the Philippines and China next month on the possible sharing of the development of the natural resources in the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
“Under the West Philippine Task Force, there is a consensus that plans to allow Filipino, Chinese and Vietnamese to engage in small-scale fishing in the Scarborough Shoal this year. In his talks with President Duterte, Premier Xi Jinping said Beijing wants to preserve it as a maritime sanctuary,” the Philippine envoy said.
“These are the elements we hope we can achieve,” he added.
Meanwhile, Batongbacal emphasized that details on joint development and sharing of resources should be discussed and must give importance on transparency.
“Fair allocation of resources must be also emphasized,” he added.
Meanwhile, Prof. Richard Heydarian of De La Salle University said the Philippines must be realistic and use the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos), because the Philippine Constitution and the Chinese legal position are irreconcilable.
“That is why it is important for the government to use the arbitration issue, because it is a preliminary step for the country to have a neutral arbitration [and] acceptable legal reference point in dealing with the involvement in the South China Sea,” he said.
By seeking an arbitration from The Hague Tribunal, Heydarian said the country now has a high moral ground to assert its right. He added the support of Washington is vital, and that human-rights issues should not undermine the alliance between Manila and Washington.
“It is only the US that can stop China in this region,” he stressed.
As the chairman of Asean this year, Heydarian said Duterte must be able to raise the code of conduct on the issue of the West Philippine Sea. “It’s time for the President to step up the plate,” he said.
“The trial period is over and there is no alternative. The best thing to do at this time is to encourage our President to raise the bar,” he said.
Finally, Batongbacal underscored the maintaining of vigilance and keeping the country’s options open in preparation for future scenarios. “We need to take the China issue seriously in Asean,” he added.
Image credits: Wu Hong/Pool Photo via AP, AP/Ng Han Guan