By Recto Mercene
A 7.2-intensity earthquake generated by the West Valley Fault would cost some P2.3 trillion in damages and another P1.8 trillion in indirect cost to the whole country, aside from 31,000 deaths and 130,000 seriously injured, according to Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) Director Renato Solidum.
On the other hand, a 6.5-intensity earthquake would still cause 23,000 deaths.
In the light of these possible widespread catastrophe, Solidum, at a media forum at the Kapihan sa Diamond Hotel, said Metro Manila has prepared some 10,000 rescuers to attend to those who would be affected by a giant temblor.
However, in the light of assessment that government help would not be enough, he suggested that local government units (LGU) should organize their own “first level of reaction awareness.”
Solidum said Metro Manila government should prepare to train people from the surrounding provinces, such as Bulacan, Pampanga, Laguna, Cavite and Zambales, who would not be affected by the earthquake, to provide the manpower needed to assist the metropolis.
“Eighty percent of the economy will stop, including the full function of the seat of government,” Solidum said, adding that 13 percent of low-rise buildings, or structures that are less than two stories high, and 11 percent of medium-rise buildings, meaning 30-story and 10-story buildings, may collapse.
“Don’t rely entirely on the government,” he warns, saying that if the expected big earthquake is to occur, Metro Manila citizens would probably apply the YOYO, or “You are on your own” principle of survival.
In order to protect the records of government, Solidum proposed that there should be a “mirror” counterpart in computerized copies of these important records stowed somewhere else outside of Metro Manila.
“We have proposed that all important records be duplicated or mirrored and these should be kept in buildings or vaults that are far from the West Valley Fault,” Solidum said.
He added that although available data were provided by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (Jica), there are no available data on how long Metro Manila would remain paralyzed.
However, he said, that several government agencies have already gathered together and advised the operators of the electric power and water sources to provide alternative solutions once the power and water supplies are affected by the earthquake.
At the moment, Solidum said there is an ongoing audit of government buildings to find out if these should be strengthened or declared dangerous for habitation.
On the other hand, those that live on top of faults should be convinced to move out or relocate further away from known faults. In this respect, Solidum said the government had provided geohazard maps, which could be downloaded in computers.
He said Phivolcs had recently released high- resolution maps that allow people to see the location of the West Valley Fault and East Valley Fault at street level.
The fault, which traverses various parts of Metro Manila and surrounding provinces, is expected to greatly affect the country since the region is not only highly populated, but also hosts the seat of government and the country’s business capital.