The Philippines’s palay production in marketing year (MY) 2016-2017 would reach 18.524 million metric tons (MMT), 6.09 percent higher than the 17.460 MMT estimated output in MY 2015-2016, according to the latest Global Agricultural Information Network (Gain) report.
The Gain report, prepared by the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila, said latest output forecast in the current market year is 1.48 percent more than the USDA FAS’s earlier projection of 18.254 MMT.
The Gain report noted that the hike in palay production could be attributed to the expansion of area harvested during the market year ending June 30. “MY 2016-2017 rice production and area harvested where modestly raised, consistent with estimates from the Philippine Statistics Authority [PSA] in its April 2017 Rice and Corn Situation and Outlook report,” the report published recently read.
The Gain report estimated that the rice area harvested in MY 2016-2017 expanded by 4.02 percent to 4.705 million hectares, from 4.523 million hectares recorded area in MY 2015-2016. The Gain report’s earlier forecast of rice area harvested in MY 2016-2017 was pegged at 4.6 million hectares.
The FAS in Manila also revised its milled-rice output forecast from 11.5 MMT to 11.67 MMT. The revised milled-rice production is 6.09 percent more than the 11 MMT estimated output in the previous market year, according to the Gain report. The Gain report also estimated that Manila’s ending rice stock by June 30 would reach 1.58 MMT, 12.7 percent lower than the 1.810 MMT estimated ending staple stock in MY 2015-2016.
In its April round of palay-production forecast, the PSA projected that output in the second quarter to reach 4.128 MMT, 11.38 percent higher than the 3.714 MMT recorded output in the same period last year.
The PSA added that harvest area in the April-to-June period would expand by 11.86 percent to 948,610 hectares, from 848,030 has recorded a year ago.
“All regions may possibly have increments in production, except Central Luzon. Probable growths in production are expected due to increments in harvest areas resulting from availability of irrigation water/sufficient rainfall during planting period and availability of seeds from Department of Agriculture [DA]-Regional Field Offices and local government units [LGUs],” the PSA said. “In Cagayan Valley and Mimaropa, the possible increments are attributed to movement of harvest to April 2017 due to intermittent rains in late-March 2017,” the PSA added.
However, the PSA noted that the average yield in the second quarter would contract to 4.35 MT per hectare, from 4.38 MT per hectare level a year ago.
The DA also projected that palay production in the April-to-June period would reach the 4 MMT level on the back of better planting conditions, particularly favorable weather patterns.
The forecasts of the DA and PSA came after local rice farmers hiked their palay output in the first quarter by 12.38 percent to 4.42 million, from 3.93 MMT recorded a year ago.