Despite the continued increase in social spending, there is now a low probability that the Aquino administration will meet most of its social-development targets by 2016.
The Aquino administration, now in its final year, disclosed that it has increased its social spending to over 10 percent in terms of real capita spending year-on-year in the past few years. However, the increase in funds may not be enough to enable the government to meet its own targets under the Philippine Development Plan (PDP).
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that, of the 29 social-develop-
ment targets, 15 may not be achieved by 2016.
Around six indicators have low probability of being achieved under the target of Improving Access to Quality Health and Nutrition Services and Access to Quality Education, Training and Culture.
Under health and nutrition services, the indicators that may not be achieved next year are lowering maternal mortality rate; infant mortality rate; prevalence of underweight children under five years old; and proportion of households with per capita intake below 100 percent dietary energy requirement, among others.
On Quality Education, Training and Culture, the country may not achieve indicators on improving the net enrollment rate in elementary and high-school levels; the achievement rate in the elementary and secondary level; and proportion of higher-education institution faculty with master’s and doctorate degrees.
The low performance in social indicators also reflect problems in attaining some of the economic targets of the Aquino administration.
The government has a low probability of attaining its gross domestic product (GDP) targets of 7.5 percent to 8.5 percent in 2016, as well as its goal of cutting poverty incidence to as low as 18 percent to 20 percent.
The country’s economic growth has slowed to 5.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015. The government has also downgraded its economic targets this year and next year to 7 percent to 8 percent. In terms of poverty incidence, the latest data showed that 25.2 percent of Filipinos are considered poor. This was based on the 2012 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) conducted by the PSA.
The country also has a low probability of meeting the exports-to-GDP ratio, both in nominal and real terms.
The nominal exports-to-GDP ratio target is 51.6 percent by 2016. But as of the first quarter of 2015, the ratio was pegged at 29.2 percent.
In real exports-to-GDP ratio terms, the country must increase this to 64.3 percent by 2016. However, in the first quarter of 2015, this was only at 46.1 percent.
The PSA data was based on the StatDev 2014 performance of the Aquino administration for the first three years. This contains 223 indicators, covering the nine PDP sectoral chapters. Based on the submissions of data source agencies, there were 151 indicators with up to 2014 data.
Out of these updated indicators, 63 posted good probabilities of achieving their respective targets; 32 registered average performances of hitting their targets, while 56 had low probabilities of reaching their targets.
The PDP is the country’s medium-term macroeconomic blueprint. The plan charts the direction of the country’s economic and social-development targets throughout the duration of every administration.
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