Death, injuries and destruction. These were the effects of the 6.7-magnitude earthquake that shook Surigao del Norte last Friday.
But what if a more powerful quake would hit the overly populated Metro Manila? What would the damage be like? Brace for something that may really sound scary.
The probability of a 7.2-magnitude earthquake hitting the metropolis is not far-fetched. Not when disaster officials say the much-feared West Valley Fault, which cuts across Metro Manila from Rizal to Laguna, is said to be already “ripe” for movement.
If this will happen, the capital may yet see its biggest destruction since World War II, with Metro Manila laying in shambles, and with thousands of dead bodies littering the streets or buried in debris.
‘Death by the thousands’
A paper—the Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS), which was jointly conducted by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Pacific Consultant International—projected the death of 34,000 people in the initial minutes that Metro Manila begins to rattle.
The same study, which was conducted from August 2002 to March 2004, added that at least 170,000 houses will be flattened, while another 340,000 will be partially damaged. Should it trigger fires, then it will transform Metro Manila into a burning inferno.
The estimates are still modest, which even Romina B. Marasigan, spokesman of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), admits, since the population of Metro Manila has grown fast from the time the study was conducted.
Still, the powerful tremor is also expected to generate a tsunami, with the possibility of flooding Manila and even its adjoining cities.
Pattern
State volcanologists and the NDRRMC said the West Valley Fault has a pattern or history of moving every 400 years, and this is the reason they have declared or admitted that it may possibly shake any time from now.
Aside from the West Valley Fault, the government is also preparing for the movement of the Manila Trench, which stretches from Ilocos Norte up to the province of Batangas.
Should the West Valley Fault moves, it should be the 10th major earthquake to rock the country since 1968.
Data provided by the Office of the Civil Defense (OCD) indicated that the first major temblor to hit the country was on August 2, 1968, which was strongly felt in the provinces of Casiguran and Metro Manila (remember the Ruby Tower tragedy that killed 270 people).
Five years later, another quake also hit Quezon, killing five people.
On August 17, 1976, a temblor measuring 7.8 on the Richter Scale also struck Regions 9 and 10, killing a total of 3,792.
It was followed by the Luzon earthquake that devastated Baguio City on July 16, 1990, where 1,238 were killed.
The tremors were followed by earthquakes in Oriental Mindoro in 1994; Metro Manila and Region 1 in 1999; Batanes in 2000; Mindanao in 2002 and Masbate and Eastern Samar in 2003.
All in all, the nine tremors killed 5,448 people.
‘Judgment day’
While tremor experts believe that the 7.2-magnitude quake, or what is being dubbed as the “judgment day”, especially for residents of Metro Manila will come, the NDRRMC has been preparing, at least, to mitigate its impact.
Marasigan said no one can predict exactly when the temblor will hit, but the government is preparing, doing everything it can, at least, to cushion its effects by working to reduce its projected damage or destruction.
She said it is not with “certainty” that they could reduce the effects of the quake 100 percent, but the goal to hit is at least for a minimum casualty, and even the number of deaths.
The NDRRMC, as the lead agency, is doing this two ways: mitigating its impact and effects, while reducing the country’s vulnerability to earthquake by undertaking earthquake drills and educating people on how they should behave if such occurs.
It has been mandatory for the NDRRMC to conduct a quarterly nationwide drill, while a response plan has been drawn with nearby provinces acting as the “first responders”.
In preparation for the “big one”, the NDRRMC has divided Metro Manila into East, West, South and North quadrants for easy and systematic response.
The east covers Marikina and Pasig; the west for Manila, Navotas and Malabon; the north for Caloocan, Valenzuela, Quezon City, San Juan and Mandaluyong; and south for Makati, Pateros, Pasay, Taguig, Parañaque, Las Piñas and Muntinlupa.
Aside from the four quadrants, the government has also designated operation centers and evacuation camps for the affected residents within the four partitioned areas.
These are LRT-2 Santolan Depot, Boys Town in Marikina, Red Cross Marikina and Ultra in Pasig for the east; Intramuros Golf Course for the west; Veterans Memorial Golf Course and the University of the Philippines Diliman for the north, and Villamor Air Base Golf Course for the south.
Marasigan said Phivolcs has also been assessing the soundness of houses and buildings in Metro Manila, with particular focus on structures that sits atop or located near the fault line.
Far from perfect
While earthquake-mitigation and evacuation methods are being taught on the local level, for the public and even in schools and offices, it may also help if every Filipino knows how to react if a quake occurs.
If somebody is inside a building during a temblor, he should protect himself from falling debris by bracing himself in a doorway or by getting under a sturdy study desk or table.
If located outside a building, he should get away from power lines, posts, walls and other structures that may fall or collapse.
If inside a vehicle, he must pull the car to the side of the road and should not attempt to cross a bridge or an overpass.
If one is on a mountain or near a deep slope, he should move away from steep escarpments that may be affected by landslides.
If one is on the shore, he should run to higher ground as the earthquake may generate a tsunami.
Marasigan said the government is continuously working to improve its resiliency to earthquakes, disasters and other calamities.
However, the Surigao del Norte earthquake showed that no matter how the government is prepared, its effort cannot always be perfected.
As Marasigan admits, there is always room for improvement.
Image credits: geoportal.gov.ph