AS 2014 becomes a reference year for 2015, we need to take a look at what happened in 2014. First of all, the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was at its lowest since 2011 at 5.4 percent, which means we will not hit the full-year GDP target of 6.5 percent. While this was disappointing, this was not unexpected due to such problems as delays in the shipment of raw materials and finished goods in and out of the Port of Manila. Of course, allegations of corruption coming from the administration and opposition alike, as well as three senators in prison and other scandals in government do not help our economy either.
One might argue that having all of the exposure of corruption and anomalies in the government is testament to the current administration’s commitment and sincerity in wiping out corruption and instituting sweeping reforms toward transparency in government.
On the contrary, it shows that the check and balance in the government is not working properly, which is why these anomalies happen and it is only after the fact that they are questioned. It also shows there are issues with respect to the qualification and integrity of high government officials appointed by the administration who are allegedly involved in these cases.
So what can we look forward to in 2015? First of all, it seems that the port congestion problem will not be solved in the next month or so due to the normal Christmas influx of goods. Even if it gets solved by the middle of this year, we have to remember that due to the coming elections, government projects will grind to a halt sometime in the second half of this year.
Furthermore, we can only expect more corruption cases to be filed against government officials, elected and appointed, on both the side of the administration and the opposition. This will certainly not help in improving investor confidence in the Philippines. There is also the possibility of an actual energy shortage in 2015, and once this happens, it will lead to a higher unemployment and underemployment rate. While we would traditionally expect official and unofficial spending in preparation for the 2016 elections leading to some stimulation in the economy, I think that with the current mood and the watchful eye of the media on how government funds are spent, this will not be sufficient to turn 2015 into a banner year. However, the coming papal visit may be a turning point in bringing back optimism in the Philippines and among Filipinos.
With all the negative sentiment, news and events happening close to the elections, this is not good for the administration candidates since the voting public will largely put the blame on them.
This will allow the opposition to be viewed in a better light by the voting public. If both administration and opposition candidates are tarnished with all the mudslinging, I would not be surprised if less popular candidates are pushed into the forefront by the voting public.
In the meantime, we can only keep a watchful eye on what is happening and when the time comes for us to vote we should vote wisely for the right people. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to everyone!
Comments may be sent to georgechuaph@yahoo.com