Everyone wants peace, of course, even Kim Jong Un, despite the North Korean despot’s war-baiting threats to develop missiles that can nuke Uncle Sam. Nothing tickles the fancy of founding father Kim Il Sung’s grandson than Washington, Tokyo and Seoul joining Beijing in showering aid on Pyongyang, just to keep its guns quiet.
For decades, that extortion worked, keeping the dynasty’s bankrupt, starving nation from imploding. So, the third Kim in charge north of the 38th Parallel still builds nastier and nastier weapons of mass destruction with which to wangle assistance and concessions.
Helping keep the Kim con going is the fear all around that getting tough would drive him to launch war against the south, plus atomic warheads at Seoul and Tokyo. Now, he even wants to target LA.
Even if it’s not in Pyongyang’s missile sights, Beijing, too, fears conflict, and not only because of the huge economic and humanitarian cost, with hundreds of thousands of refugees sure to stream into China, and shriveling trade and investment from America, Japan and South Korea.
Beijing’s biggest dread is the North’s collapse, creating a united Korea allied with Washington and Tokyo, probably hosting US troops right at the Chinese border. To avoid that nightmare outcome, China bankrolled the Kims and always opposed military action against them.
The game has changed
That war-blocking stalemate, however, may be unravelling, and sabers now rattle.
In Pyongyang last Saturday, tens of thousands of troops, with tanks and trucks brandishing long-range missiles, paraded in Kim Il Sung Square to mark his 105th birthday. The morning after, North Korea unsuccessfully tested a missile, the latest of several launches that Kim Jong Un hopes would give him rockets to hit America.
That threat has made US President Donald J. Trump dump “strategic patience”, the long-standing tack of negotiations and concessions to make Pyongyang behave. Instead, an American strike force steams toward Korea, led by the San Diego-based carrier Carl Vinsons.
After his Florida summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping two weeks ago, Trump tweeted that the US would solve the Kim problem with or without China’s cooperation. Many then wondered if he would bomb North Korean nukes and arms facilities, just as he did the Syrian air base believed to have dispatched planes in the deadly April 7 poison gas attack on a rebel-held town.
With Washington willing to bomb, Beijing has taken steps to prevent and prepare for war. As the 90-warplane Vinsons nears the peninsula, the 2.3-million-strong People’s Liberation Army has moved 150,000 men to the Chinese-Korean border.
And for the first time in memory, Beijing is squeezing Pyongyang’s coffers. The Chinese have turned back North Korean ships carrying coal —its leading export, generating 40 percent of foreign exchange—and suspended purchases till 2018. There is also a ban on selected Chinese exports to the isolated state, and Xi reportedly agreed to curb Chinese banks servicing North Korea.
And if all that weren’t interesting enough, Russia sent the flagship of its Asian fleet in Vladivostok, the missile cruiser Varyag, on a two-month journey to several countries. While the trip seems harmless, it may also be a way to get the Varyag out on the open sea before possible hostilities in Northeast Asia restrict naval movements.
China’s tough options
China’s new trade restrictions seem to show real fear of US attack. But it looks like Kim isn’t paying attention, given his recent missile test, which reportedly failed.
If Pyongyang persists on its provocative path despite continued economic pressure, it may leave Beijing with two hard options to prevent American attack and Korean war and hostile reunification: ease or push Kim Jong Un out, or destroy his nukes, rockets and weapons labs.
The preferred route is to replace Kim, either by offering him retirement in China or instigating a coup against him. It’s not just Beijing thinking of autocrat change. In recent briefings for Trump, US national security advisers included Kim’s removal among options to address the nuclear threat from Pyongyang.
That may be the least disruptive scenario to turn North Korea away from atomic armageddon, and toward peaceful relations and productive collaboration with the world, not to mention orderly reunification.
What if Kim Jong Un proves unassailable? Then, Beijing’s other option may be to eliminate or drastically degrade his nuclear weapons and facilities. Chinese bombing may still trigger war and nuclear retaliation by the North, especially if Kim thinks US bombs did the deed. But it may be less likely than American attack. And the bombing could trigger Kim’s exit.
No way China would take out Kim Jong Un or his nukes? Then pray that the man who bombed Syria’s air force for gassing one of its towns, would not do the same to nuclear faclilities aiming to threaten his own nation’s cities.