ONE of the more interesting recent International Ipra Thought Leadership (ITL) essays published by the International Public Relations Association (Ipra) for the benefit of its members is one written by Lisa Vallee-Smith entitled “Three years from now—trends for the 2020 communicator.” The author projects the changes she expects to occur in the public relation industry way into the decade of the 2020s, which she believes PR practitioners should prepare for and adapt to if they are to survive and flourish.
Projecting trends in any sector or industry that far ahead of time based on past and current experience or anticipated developments is a very risky proposition, given the quantum changes that have been taking place in the world due to advances in technology and the so-called mega-events in society described by Vallee-Smith. Hence, I have nothing but admiration for her for sticking her head out with these Cassandra-like peeps into the future, fully aware her predictions may or may not take place at all, or worse, the complete opposite of these will happen, causing no small embarrassment on her part. But if half or even a third of her projections take place, that should be a good enough batting average for her or any futurologist worth his or her salt could be proud of.
Here are Vallee-Smith’s predictions for the PR industry for the foreseeable future and my own personal take on them.
- “Megatrends”, such as urbanization, environmental protection, women empowerment and the like, “will continue to make meganews.” This is really more a description of what has long been happening and an affirmation that it will continue to happen to which I fully agree. Those who have not inputted these megatrends into their data base and practice as counselors will, as of normal attrition, definitely fall by the wayside before long.
- “Small- and mid-sized businesses will become even bigger target markets for products and services, as the largest global enterprises experience difficulty trying to compete, grow and satisfy investors and shareholders.” This is a natural end-game result of “globalization” of business and follows the economic law of diminishing returns as the market diminishes and competition intensifies. What this implies for PR practitioners is actually salutary, as it will mean more business for those who can “ride” the trend.
- “Traditional PR firms will disappear rapidly in the wake of big-agency consolidation, the massive move to digital and continued decline of community and regional media.” I don’t quite agree with this, as the PR game has so far survived and adapted to the seismic and revolutionary changes taking place in media, from traditional to digital to social and only-God-knows-what next. And again, here the primeval law of the jungle -”survival of the fittest”—applies. But the basic function of “traditional” PR firms—that of counseling and developing the right content and messaging for their clients or principals—will remain.
I also do not agree that community, regional and local media with their specific areas of coverage and influence will decline. Despite globalization and regionalization, the world will remain geographically diversified and divided into communities and regions where the community, regional and local media will remain important, if not essential. The approach to these different media cannot be done in a general, homogenous or “off-the-rack” manner. As the truism goes, “PR principles are international, but the application of it should be local to be effective.”
- “The agency-of-record model disappears as clients demand shorter-term, faster-return, more timely projects that keep them ahead of competitors.” I think this is more likely to happen in the advertising or events-organizing sectors of the communications industries, where certain firms become “hot” and the “flavor of the season,” but not in the PR, where long-term relationships of mutual trust and confidence is essential.
- “All information will become entertainment. Data, report, news, polls, studies, every form of communication will be presented visually, in animation, with two-way engagement.” Here, I agree wholeheartedly. And this is where the creativity of the PR firm and its determination to master the latest and most amazing visual communication techniques come into play. Being in the communications business, PR firms cannot afford to be laggards in this regard. Again, here the “survival of the fittest” paradigm applies.
- “Written content will become longer, giving rise to 2,000-word articles and e-books and spurring the end of the 400 blogs to 500 many brands are accustomed to.” As a lover of reading and books, I would personally like for this development to take place. But time has become and is continuing to become the most valuable commodity in business as in life in general and people no longer have the luxury of time as in the old days to mull and think things over and over. The name of the communications game is to get your message as quickly, impressively and memorably as possible. Maybe in the field of literature, many will relish ploughing through “war and peace,” but in the competitive and fast-moving world of business where PR operates, “the shorter and clearer the messaging, the better.”
- “Brands will become increasingly publishers, investing in ways to mobilize and move their own brand followings instead of paying for third parties to carry their messages.” This would seem to be an abrupt turnaround to the growing trend to outsource services to companies that specialize in them. Unless the company is in the business of publishing itself, and is good and successful at it, companies in most industries are better off leaving the publication and messaging of their brands to the experts.
- “Technology serving the marketing industry will continue to expand as pressure for return on investment and data-driven results increases.” This is all well and good, but does not seem to recognize that many breakthroughs came about as a result of creative, original, out-of-the box thinking and not on endlessly crunching and analyzing data, which more often results in “paralysis by analysis.” We must always remember PR is both the art and science of persuasion, and in my view, with more emphasis on the former than the latter.
- “Despite current trends, hard-news journalism will emerge as a pop-culture star as millennials mature, awakening to a renewed appreciation for hard-hitting investigative journalism.” This would be a welcome trend for the PR industry if it materializes, since real professional PR must be anchored on truth. With few exceptions, age brings with it wisdom and discernment for every new generation since time immemorial. This was true of previous generations, like the “flower children” and “youth rebels” of the past who became as conservative as their parents were, if not more so, when they were left on their own devices where they had to “shape out or ship out.” Or like the so-called fighters for freedom, who, after gaining power, become dictators themselves, brooking no opposition to their own imposed iron rule. History is replete with such examples, including the French revolution. For, as the French saying attributed to Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr goes, “plus ca change, plus la meme chose” or “the more things change, the more they remain the same.”
- “Higher education becomes bifurcated into first-tier national universities and well-funded public universities. Options for higher education in the lower end of the market proliferate in the form of two-year degrees, specialization and certifications as students seek to reduce time spent outside the marketplace and wrap their education plans into their work timetable.” This seems, indeed, a practical way to approach the aspect of education as preparation for most careers in general, especially in countries like the Philippines, where a good education is accessible only to the well-to-do, but not to the lower class who comprise the majority.
But for PR, the success of PR practitioners depends not just on a good education, but other factors, as well. A good, well-rounded education is certainly one of them, but so are passion for excellence, good judgment, creativity, capacity for hard work and commitment to integrity are just as important. The latter ones could not be learned in school, but must come from the person himself through his upbringing at home and through continuing and constant self-study and lessons learned through trial and error on the job.
Again, PR practitioners around the world owe Lisa Vallee-Smith a debt of gratitude for inviting us to pause from our day-to-day works and concerns servicing the PR needs of our employer or client companies and see what the future holds for our industry. This is no mean service that she has done for us, for our very future depends on how well we can prepare and adapt to that future, if and when it comes to pass.
PR Matters is a roundtable column by members of the local chapter of the International public relations Association, the premier association for senior professionals around the world. Rene Nieva is the chairman and CEO of Perceptions, inc.
We are devoting a special column each month to answer the readers’ questions about public relations. Please send your comments and questions to askipraphil@gmail.com.