Record-low inflation averaging 0.4 percent in October may have already bottomed out in November, with projected inflation this month seen rising to 0.8 percent due to a modest rise in food prices, the government’s chief economist said on Wednesday.
In an economic bulletin, Finance Undersecretary Gil S. Beltran said projected inflation of 0.8 percent in November remain within the 2 percent to 4 percent range that the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordinating Council has set as goal for the year.
“Inflation rate for November may reach 0.8 percent, double the price increase last month, suggesting that inflation may have already bottomed out after hitting record lows of 0.4 percent in the previous couple of months,” Beltran in the economic bulletin said.
The other measures of inflation, however, continue to be at their lowest levels, which is a sign of a continuing rise in competitiveness of Philippine industries.
The producer’s price index, or the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output, continues to be at a record low of negative 8 percent; while wholesale prices of commodities are at a negative 4.1 percent.
The GDP deflator, or the measure of the level of prices of all new and domestically produced final goods and services in an economy, is also at a negative 0.01 percent.
The rising inflation pressure this month was traced to the rise in prices on food and nonalcoholic beverages brought about by the destruction of agricultural crops by Typhoon Lando in October. Before the effects of Lando was felt in October, the inflation rate on food and nonalcoholic beverages was only 0.4 percent. This was seen nearly doubling in November when inflation is forecast at 0.7 percent.
Other items seen posting minimal movement in November in terms of inflation include alcoholic beverages and tobacco (1.1 percent, from 0.7 percent); clothing and footwear (2.3 percent, from 2.2 percent); furnishings and household equipment (1.6 percent, from 1.5 percent); recreation and culture (1 percent, from 0.9 percent); education (remained at 3.6 percent), and; restaurants and miscellaneous services (remained at 1.2 percent).
The biggest movers in terms of inflation included commuter transport expenses that jumped from only 0.1 percent in October to 0.8 percent in November.