THE head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says market turmoil this week may have been an “overreaction,” as leading economic figures met to discuss on Friday the global economy and worries about another recession in Europe.
Christine Lagarde described the week as a “correction on the markets, and perhaps at this stage, an overreaction.”
Reforms in France are also on the agenda at Friday’s meeting in Paris, in a country crippled by flat growth and high unemployment.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development praised the French government’s latest economic plan, especially €30 billion, or $38.5 billion, in tax cuts for companies, and said it could boost growth by 0.3 points per year over the next five years—if it’s implemented quickly and deepened.
French President François Hollande pleaded for “flexibility,” saying, “We need structural reforms, but at the same time, we need to present a budget that allows us to reach the growth goals we want,” he said.
Hollande’s finance and economy ministers are heading on Monday to Germany—which has berated France for not sticking to deficit targets—to discuss Europe’s economy.
US stocks end dramatic week with rally
THE stock market capped a turbulent week with a big gain on Friday, a sign of renewed investor confidence after days of gloomy economic news.
It was the latest large move for a market which, with a few exceptions, has been on a mostly downward track since last month. Stocks have had four weeks of declines, leaving the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index 6 percent below the record high from September 18.
Investors rode wild market swings for much of the week. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged as much as 460 points on Wednesday, then had one of its best days of the year on Friday, when it soared more than 260 points following strong earnings from big-name companies Morgan Stanley and General Electric (GE), as well as some encouraging US economic news.
“We had indiscriminate selling all week, and then on Saturday we had indiscriminate buying,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago.
Market watchers have warned investors to expect more volatility than they have been used to in recent months. Their concerns reflect weaker growth in Europe and what it could mean for US corporate profits, as well as plunging oil prices.
The turmoil has not been limited to the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Bonds, overseas stock markets and commodities prices have all had big moves this week.
“Most of the swings this week were related to fears about global growth and not about the fundamentals of this market,” said James Liu, global market strategist at JPMorgan Funds.
The VIX, a measure of how much volatility investors expect in stocks, has risen from 12 in mid-September to as high as 26 this week, above its historical average of around 20. That’s still far below the readings of 80 it had at the height of the 2008 financial crisis.
“This volatility, in a way, is purely psychological. This is the market returning to a more normalized behavior,” Liu said.
The Dow advanced 263.17 points, or 1.6 percent, to 16,380.41, its second-best day of the year. The S&P 500 index rose 24 points, or 1.3 percent, to 1,886.76 and the Nasdaq composite rose 41.05 points, or 1 percent, to 4,258.44.
Investors rallied behind a group of corporate earnings results.
GE rose 2.4 percent after its third-quarter earnings were better than expected, helped by improved performances at its aviation and oil and gas businesses.
GE has a broad range of businesses that cover so many parts of the economy, from banking to building nuclear reactors, that investors see its results as a bellwether for how US industry is doing. GE rose 57 cents to $24.82.
Textron, another industrial conglomerate, had the second-biggest gain in the S&P 500 index after its own earnings came in far ahead of expectations. Textron rose $2.99, or 9 percent, to $36.65.
Overall, the S&P 500’s industrial sector rose nearly 2 percent, making it the best performing part of the market.
Investors also had two pieces of positive economic data to work through.
A survey by the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose last month to 86.4, much higher than the 84.3 expected by economists. It was the highest reading for that survey since July 2007, right before the Great Recession.
Next week investors will be watching on one of the busiest periods for Wall Street this earnings season. A total of 130 companies in the S&P 500 index will report quarterly results next week, including big names like American Express, Cola-Cola, AT&T and IBM.
On Friday oil prices rose slightly, but were still down 4 percent for the week on prospects of lower demand from a slowing global economy and high supplies.
Benchmark US crude rose 5 cents to close at $82.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils used by many US refineries, rose 34 cents to close at $86.16 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.