IT is Asia’s battle of the coming decade. The Philippines fights for its future as a functioning, law-abiding state against enemies foreign and domestic. And if it loses—make no mistake about it—so does the region.
Just imagine: The most strategically situated nation in East Asia—straddling major sea and air routes, with hundreds of thousands of citizens in homes, offices, shops and factories across the region; plus the fifth-longest coastline among nations, stretching 36,289 kilometers for secret landings and shipments — taken over by extremists, narco-syndicates and communist insurgents.
That is what East Asia faces if President Duterte and his security forces lose to Islamic State-driven terrorists, international narco-syndicates and leftist insurgents.
Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict has warned that the IS-spurred siege of Marawi City in central Mindanao in the south has inspired extremists to mount more attacks in the region. The conflict still raging after over two months likely also lured more youths to extremism, and spurred more IS and other funding.
But that’s not the only threat facing the Philippines and the region. Despite Duterte’s bloody war on drugs, narco-syndicates still thrive, even returning to the national penitentiary—showing it is also resurgent across the land, where law enforcement is far less formidable than in prison.
Further stretching security forces are escalating attacks by the rebel New People’s Army (NPA), ordered by the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) after Duterte imposed martial law on Mindanao on May 25 over the Marawi assault. The half-century-old CPP-NPA never ceased offensives and extortion, despite peace talks.
Triple threats to the Philippines
Can the 125,000-strong Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police, with 170,000 personnel, augmented by the border-control agencies, Philippine Coast Guard, Bureau of Immigration and the Bureau of Customs, defeat terrorists, syndicates and communists—all with substantial political and financial support from here and abroad?
Last month Indonesian Defense Minister Ryamizard Ryacudu estimated IS-linked terrorists in Mindanao at 1,200, both actual IS fighters and
local ones who pledged allegiance to the Middle East extremist group pejoratively called Daesh. The AFP counts 250 to 400 IS members.
Two major IS-driven groups, the lead Marawi attackers Maute and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF), were founded by former members of the 11,000-strong Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the country’s largest rebel group now in peace talks. MILF members have kith and kin among Daesh-linked terrorists.
Add to the bloody cabal the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), the self-styled IS “Philippine Province”, which has perpetrated kidnappings, bombings and beheadings since 1991. Despite major government offensives against ASG, Maute and BIFF for months under Duterte, they were still able to assault Marawi.
Compounding challenges for security forces and border watchdogs are the 5,000-strong NPA (estimate 1969) and the P120-billion-a-year narco-trade. In rural hinterlands, leftist insurgents attack police and army units, and extort “revolutionary taxes” from companies and communities, and “campaign fees” from election candidates.
The communists’ political action arm, National Democratic Front, and its affiliates conduct protests and propaganda, yet receive hundreds of millions of pesos in congressional funds for its party-list representatives. Local politicians in rebel-influenced areas also give support, if only to get backing during elections.
On narcotics, the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency estimates annual illicit revenues at P120 billion. Traffickers continue operating despite nearly 90,000
arrested under Duterte, nine drug labs and 152 narco-dens closed, 1.3 million pushers and users surrendered and P12.6 billion worth of methampethamine seized. Some 20,000 of 42,000 barangay villages are drug-affected and addicts top 3 million by official data.
The President says syndicates corrupt many officials, including 40 percent of village or barangay chiefs. Most drug supplies and raw materials come from China, and two-thirds of foreigners arrested for drug offenses are Chinese. Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel is here, too, seeking to use the Philippines as a trafficking hub for Asia- and US-bound drugs. A December 2013 raid in Batangas, south of Manila, netted three Sinaloa men and 82 kilos of meth, valued at P420 million.
Asia must help the Philippines
All this must take top agenda billing at the Asean 50th anniversary summit next month. Asean must get a full briefing, then figure out what its members and other Asian states can do to help the Philippines beat terrorists, rebels and narco-syndicates.
Help should include ongoing joint sea patrols with Indonesia and Malaysia, Chinese and Singapore military training and equipment, Japanese and US surveillance planes and patrol vessels, and tech assistance for border and banking controls.
Asia must also stand with Duterte against Western critics with zero idea what grave threats the Philippines and Asia face, which has now prompted Indonesia to also employ lethal force against drugs.
Terrorists, rebels and narco-hoods are ganging up on the Philippines. Asia must also unite against them.
2 comments
This is pathetic!
Your hyping up fear & danger for your own agenda!