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The state’s weather bureau is getting its needed upgrade to be able to better prepare the country for natural disasters particularly tropical cyclones and prevent big disasters, such as those brought by the recent Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) announced in a press briefing on Friday that it now has an “enhanced weather-forecasting system” called Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System that will provide “tracking accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasting, including position and intensity. “ It was developed with support from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology through a P17-million grant from the Australian Government Aid Program. “The loss of life and damage caused by recent typhoons, not just in the Philippines but also across Southeast Asia, is a tragic reminder of how prone our region is to natural disasters,” Australian Ambassador Rod Smith said. “As a regional neighbor and key development partner, Australia is helping the Philippines’ preparedness to manage and respond to disasters and emergencies.” Todd Smith, Manager of the Climate Service Center of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said the system creates a “guidance-forecast track” of the cyclone. Smith added that the early-warning system will provide the country a “world-class track forecast.” He explained that the system sources numerous “forecast models” from various forecasting centers all over the globe and comes up with a “consensus forecast” or the mean of an ensemble of forecast variables. The system then will provide forecasters with a graphical presentation of its computation in a computer screen. According to Pagasa, “The enhanced system will help in better analyzing these different models to come up with a consensus and accurate forecast, as well as enhancing the mapping of storm signals.” At present, Pagasa uses various numerical weather prediction models, which, according to the weather bureau, “are sometimes difficult to interpret, affecting the quality of forecast decisions and timelines of warnings.” Pagsa also said that the system enables a “faster delivery of warnings through an automated delivery system for fax, e-mail, internet, and SMS. The Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System, however, is still in its initial days of testing. Pagasa spokesman Nathaniel Cruz explained that forecasters need time to “familiarize” themselves to the news system. But he quickly added that they are aiming for a full integration of the new system into their official forecasts “before the year ends.” The launch of the system coincided with a 3.35 billion yen (around P1.7 billion) aid granted by the Japanese government. The amount is set to be used for the replacement of existing meteorological radar systems with three Doppler radars which can measure the amount and intensity of rain fall. It followed the approval of a $3-million grant by the Korea International Cooperation Agency. A GMANews.TV story said that the amount would be used to fund the acquisition of water-level gauging stations, flood-forecasting systems, warning posts and automatic weather stations. The latter, which will be first installed in the Sierra Madre Mountains in Montalban, Rizal, will provide forecasters with data to be used in creating “flood inundation models” that forecast the amount of flooding an area can expect. “Through the new project, the agency could give the public sufficient time to prepare before storms and floods batter and inundate their homes,” the GMANews.TV said. Besides Australian Embassy and Pagasa oficials, the Friday briefing was also attended by representatives from the Department of Science and Technology, and National Disaster Coordinating Council. |
