WASHINGTON—Storm science has greatly improved tornado warnings in recent years. But if that’s led anyone into a sense of security, that feeling has taken a beating in recent weeks.

Super Outbreak 2011, from April 25 to 28, killed more than 300 people in the South and Midwest. Less than a month later, a devastating tornado took more than 120 lives around Joplin, Missouri. This now could be the deadliest year for tornadoes since 1950, based on an assessment of National Weather Service figures.

This despite warnings of as much as 20 minutes, thanks to improved weather radar installed across the country in the 1990s. Before that, tornado warnings often weren’t issued until a twister was sighted on the ground.

Scientists see a variety of factors that helped make this year’s twisters deadlier—from La Nina to public complacency, from global warming to urban sprawl.

“We thought for the longest time physical science could get us by...that we could design out of disaster,” said meteorology professor Walker Ashley of Northern Illinois University. Now scientists are finding they need to take human nature into account.

What is clear is that certain factors add to the risk of death. The most vulnerable folks are those living in mobile homes and houses without basements. For a variety of reasons, a lot of homes don’t have basements.

Twisters occurring on weekends—like the Joplin tornado—and at night tend to be greater killers because they catch people at home. At night, twisters are harder to see and sleeping people may not hear a warning.

Those less likely to be killed in a storm tend to be more educated and to have a plan in place beforehand.

In Sedalia, Missouri, 30-year-old Sean McCabe had the right idea when the tornado struck, heading to the basement. He said the storm shoved him down the final flight of steps. He had scrapes and cuts on his hands, wrists, back and feet. Blood was visible in the house, and much of the roof of the house was gone.

“I saw little debris and then I saw big debris, and I’m like OK, let’s go,” said McCabe.

Hundreds have not been so lucky. The death toll reported on Saturday by the city of Joplin stands at 139, which, if correct, puts this year’s tornado death toll at 520—exceeding the previous highest recorded death toll in a single year of 519 in 1953. But Missouri state officials counted 126 dead, a discrepancy that left unclear whether 2011 has yet set the modern record for tornado fatalities.

There were deadlier storms before 1950, but those counts were based on estimates and not on precise figures

The National Weather Service said 58 tornadoes touched down in Alabama on April 27, killing 238 people in that state alone and injuring thousands. Scores died in other states from twisters spawned by the same storm system. Put together, emergency
management officials say the twisters left a path of destruction 16 kilometers wide and 980 kilometers long, or about as far as a drive from Birmingham to Columbus, Ohio.

Statewide, Alabama officials estimate there was enough debris to stack a football field a mile high with rubble.

Contributing to the massive loss of life is the growth of urban areas, suggested Marshall Shepherd, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Georgia.

“Historically, the central business districts of cities have not been hit that frequently,” he explained. But as you increase the land area covered by homes and businesses, he said, “you’re increasing the size of the dartboard.”

An expanding population does increase exposure to the danger, agreed Ashley, who fears deaths could begin to rise in the future as a result of sprawl and more people living in vulnerable residences such as mobile homes.

If the Tuscaloosa and Joplin tornadoes had each been a few miles to the south, on farmland, little would be heard about them, Ashley said, but when extremely violent tornadoes mingle with urban sprawl “you’re going to have a disaster.”

“I hope this will be an outlier year, very much like Katrina was to hurricanes,” he said in a telephone interview from a field trip to chase tornadoes.

But no one can guarantee that, and weather experts are becoming increasingly concerned about how people respond to tornado warnings.

“A lot of it is complacency,” Ashley said. “The population seems to be becoming desensitized to nature. I don’t know why.”

Studies have shown that 15 to 20 minutes is the most effective amount of warning time, and longer warning times can increase deaths. Weather experts aren’t sure why, but worry that people think that if a twister hasn’t appeared in a certain amount of time, it must have been a false alarm.

(AP)