Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) Commissioner Sixto Esquivias IV was appointed to his present post only last November, or barely eight months ago, but why is it that already there is that persistent talk that he’s on the way out?

Esquivias, it will be recalled, was plucked from the private sector where he had chosen to go after serving the BIR for several years. At the BIR, he rose from the ranks as a career official until he became deputy commissioner. We are told that he quit the No. 2  job at the BIR upon realizing that there was no way he could rise any further in the agency.

Three things may have set off those rumors that he may soon have to bid goodbye to the BIR for the second time in his life.

First of all, the BIR fell short of its collection target by 6.1 percent in the first five months of the year. This shortfall is huge and perilously close to the limit set by the lateral attrition law.

Second, the incumbent commissioner’s supposed political backer—Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile—is said to have begun distancing himself from President Arroyo and cottoning closer to former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada. In our system, one can never hope to land (let alone keep) a job as sensitive as BIR commissioner without the backing of a powerful political ally of the appointing power. Now that old political alliances are undergoing seismic changes, the careers of political protégés like Esquivias may have to yield to those changes.

And third is the appointment of Narciso Santiago Jr. as presidential adviser on revenue enhancement, which is nothing more, really, than an honorific title coined by Malacañang to please its political allies. Santiago himself, to be sure, is a prominent and influential figure. But he derives most of his influence and clout from his wife. In fact, he is better known in political circles as the husband of the feisty Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago.

I think that more than anything else, it was the appointment of Jun Santiago that was seen as a manifestation—or an ominous sign—that Malacañang is unhappy with Esquivias’s performance.

Why else, indeed, would President Arroyo name anybody to a position of Cabinet rank for the purpose of “revenue enhancement” if she was happy with Esquivias?

If you look at the BIR’s collection record for the first five months of the year under the leadership of Commissioner Esquivias, it would be easy to get misled. It would be easy to jump to the conclusion that he has not lived up to expectations, or simply that he can not hack it. If you are not familiar with the lateral-attrition law, that is.

Under Esquivias, the BIR’s total collection for the first five months of the year amounted to only P315.2 billion. This was 6.1 percent short of the collection goal of P388.4 billion. A 6.1- percent deficiency is only 0.9-percent shy of the limit set by the lateral-attrition law to make any commissioner “atrritable” or a candidate for dismissal. (Actually, there’s no such word as attritable in the dictionary. But it’s a bastard word our bureaucrats like to use in their letters and memos.)

In the face of these dismaying figures, however, Department of Finance (DOF) officials are not inclined to heap the blame on Esquivias. “In fairness to him,” says one DOF assistant secretary, “the slump in the economy and other factors such as the new revenue-eroding laws passed by Congress have all contributed to the huge downturn in the government’s tax take for this year.”

He says for every percentage-point decline in the gross domestic product, “we must factor in a P12-billion decline in the revenue we expect to collect. This and all other factors beyond the commissioner’s control are all taken into consideration by the lateral-attrition law. Therefore, in rating the performance of a commissioner, the Revenue Performance Evaluation Board must consider all the extenuating factors.

“If you go strictly by the law, Esquivias even exceeded his collection goal by P500 million. His performance hasn’t been all that bad. Naming a new commissioner at this point would mean waiting for the new agency head to hit his stride, name the people he trusts to key jobs, and all that stuff. It is during the learning curve that the agency’s collection rate might go from bad to worse.”

From the way its officials are talking about Esquivias, the DOF apparently prefers—if it had its way, that is—that no changes be made in the agency at this point. It apparently is convinced that there is no urgent reason to replace Esquivias right now. (Of course you would expect Finance Secretary Gary Teves himself to dutifully say, “The matter of such sensitive appointments is the sole prerogative of the Chief Executive; we will abide by whatever decision she might make.”)

But still, the rumors at the BIR that Esquivias will be replaced (“next month,” one BIR regional district officer said, as if he got it straight from some unimpeachable source) just won’t go away. I’m sure some of the talk is being fanned by favor-seeking politicians who got rebuffed and are now gunning for Esquivias’s scalp.

As of yesterday, a total of five names were being mentioned as possible candidates for the commissioner’s job.

There is a sixth “dark horse,” so the rumors go, who might be plucked from retirement and harnessed for his intimate knowledge of the operations of large corporate taxpayers. This former revenue district officer and deputy commissioner used to serve under the presidency of Erap when revenue collections were at an all-time high.

For whatever it is worth, the “short list” of the BIR rumor mill includes the following names: Joel Tantorre, Hagedorn Roldan, Vic Endriga, Gregorio Cabantac and, of course, Narciso “Jun” Santiago Jr.

Santiago’s appointment as presidential adviser for revenue enhancement, by the way, did not sit well with big business groups. The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Tax Managers Association of the Philippines said the carte blanche given by Malacañang to investigate large taxpayers might result in a needless duplication of a function that the BIR is already carrying out. The business groups fear that companies might only be “harassed” by two separate entities doing the same thing—opening their books and assessing their tax liabilities.

Well, I have news for these businessmen. They don’t have to worry too much about this for now. Santiago has repeatedly tried to meet Esquivias about how he could nicely fit in the government’s tax-collection effort. For some reason, Esquivias has consistently been unavailable each time Santiago tried.

The entire agency is amused no end by this turn of events. Now bets are being laid that the snub—deliberate or otherwise—could either trigger a turf war or even cost Esquivias his job.

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