Wednesday, Feb 15th 2012 | Search
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Get on with it

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THANKS to my jet lag, I started this article early enough to hit my deadline. I’ve just returned from a two-week trip with my family in the United Kingdom. We visited my sister-in-law and her wonderful family and basically took over their home. I’ve been lucky enough to visit the UK for four times in the last eight years. I enjoy traveling there. English is their main language and that makes talking to waiters, shop keepers, plumbers and pub patrons easy. The people are great, but to meet the real folks you must travel away from the central London and go to a football match or visit a pub in the Chilturns. You can also go to Scotland. The country and its people have an old-school feel combined with a new world soul similar to Wimbledon and Wembley. Old buildings are preserved with ultra modern interiors. Small county roads are plied by big Range Rovers.

It’s a great place to visit but I’m not sure I’d like to live and work there. Life is very tough. They suffered a major recession in 2008 and 2009 and many people are still jobless. At the highest level, income tax rates reach 52 percent. Housing prices outside of central London have dropped 20 to 30 percent. Some towns that I visited looked like they need a new paint job, but the amazing thing about the UK is its ability to just get on with it.  Even with a national deficit at 10 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Yet even at a GDP growth rate at below 1 percent, they continue to invest. This low growth rate has put a strain on the infrastructure but the British do their best to repair their roads, upgrade their train stations and airports. Traffic can be backed up for miles and miles due to road works and people just keep their lips tight and won’t complain. On one Saturday it took us three hours to travel 30 miles. They just get on with it.

We should learn this lesson. We should learn to just get on with it. Look forward and move forward. I am very disappointed with our 4.9-percent GDP growth rate. Not counting the 2008/2009 period, we have to go back to 2004 to find a similar growth rate.  The main culprit is lack of infrastructure spending. The government has turned the faucet off. I agree that they wanted to make sure that we don’t waste water but we all need to drink or we will die. We must not be afraid to spend because of corruption.  Process and accountability—we should fix the faucet and get on with it.

Also, our obsession of keeping our deficit to GDP ratio at 3 percent must be reconsidered. Even with our current growth rate we can double infrastructure spending and not break our financial ratios too much. Our ratios today are certainly much better than they were in 2004. We cannot afford to not invest in our future. If we are worried that we will put the burden of the cost on our children’s children, don’t worry. They will benefit most from these investments. Because of this, they will be significantly wealthier than we are now and they will be able to afford it.

The stock market has been in consolidation mode for about two months now.  I think this may continue for another month or so. But before we make an attempt for the summit, there are some headwinds from the international front that we must contend with. Inflation fears are still around but current spot prices of key commodities like oil, rice and sugar are lower. Lower global growth rates may also keep investors from putting more risk on the table. Local interest rates may rise further but only if GDP growth picks up in the second half of 2011.

I think this will happen. The attempt at the summit must be fueled by earnings. There is good news from the corporate front as first quarter earnings continue to grow at a good clip. The real estate and mining sectors together with the conglomerates are delivering the strongest growth rates while the power sector is a drag.

Let’s not be fooled by the growth numbers. It seems like all major industry players are making good money. The market in general is not at bargain levels with the Philippine Stock Exchange Index trading at 15 times but there are more than a couple of individual stocks trading at their five-year average price-earnings multiple combined with stronger earnings and growth rates. The buy window has opened. Get on with it and good luck.

 

(The author is the investment director for equity portfolio management for ATR KimEng Asset Management and chairman of its investment committee. For comments, please e-mail him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .)

 

 


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