Back in 1992, a relatively unknown Southern governor named William Jefferson (aka “Bill”) Clinton made such a splash when he upset the then-Republican incumbent, President George H. W. Bush, a true-blue Eastern Establishment type, by singlemindedly pounding the administration on the deteriorating state of the US economy.
Having experienced robust growth during the Reagan “Morning in America” years, Americans could not reconcile themselves with the squeeze that Bush was presiding over as he tried to rein the yawning budget deficit. Americans were taken aback even more when Bush reneged on his “No new taxes” pledge (Remember the winning Bush line “Read my lips: No new taxes”?) and decided to adjust the tax package just to slow down the runaway debt.
The negative repercussions of what was otherwise a prudent and, as is now turning out, perfectly responsible fiscal initiative proved to be Bush’s albatross. That gave Clinton and the Democrats the ammunition to go on the offensive calling him an insensitive WASP “do gooder” and punctuated their attack with that winning campaign line “It’s the economy, stupid.” Since then, that injunction to always take a close look at the economy has taken a life of its own and used many times over by those challenging the incumbents not only in the US but worldwide.
Indeed, almost two decades since it got into the public consciousness, the same line would make perfect sense and, yes, be a karma-like catch phrase against the incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his allies in the incoming 2012 US presidential elections. And, if the Aquino administration does not watch out, the same injunction may yet be used to bring it down to earth in the runup to the 2013 midterm elections in the midst of the political and economic uncertainties that are expected to visit not only the country but the entire world in the next year and beyond. And this time around, the message will even be more compelling given the severe stresses most countries are now experiencing as in “It’s still the economy, stupid.”
The prospects for 2012
In our year ender at the Saturday Forum at Annabel’s over the weekend, BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo and former Budget Secretary Ben Diokno remained cautiously optimistic about our prospects for 2012. Saying that despite all the challenges, we will still manage to grow by at least 3.4 percent if we can have an uptick of 4.2 percent in the quarter ending in 12 days, nonetheless we would have grown more had the administration not underspent. About half of the infrastructure budget for 2011 will remain unspent by year-end while not one project under the centerpiece PPP program ever got off the ground.
Nonetheless, the BSP has managed the peso well in 2011 and will definitely institute much-needed measures to serve as our buffer from the heavy shoals coming from the woes, which continue to affect the OECD, G-20 and other developed economies. Both noted economists agree that the remittances from overseas Filipino workers, which Guinigundo advised may grow by 7 percent next year, the BPO sector that may grow by at least 10 percent and probably the inflow of investments in industry, tourism and infrastructure will continue to serve us in good stead in 2012. However, they noted serious gaps in such key areas as power, infrastructure, including airports and ports, as well as the lag in our agricultural-enhancement efforts and research and technology, among other areas, which will definitely linger up to 2012 and even 2013. Even the manner by which the administration has administered its “dole-out” CCT program has left reformers in their midst dumb founded.
These serious administrative lapses, especially in the underspending for infrastructure in pursuance of ephemereal deficit goals, coupled with uncertainties not just in the political front but in tax administration, use of ODA and budgeted allocations and the hasty review and cancellation of big-ticket projects on mere suspicion of corruption and rigging, among other things, has served as a drag in our recovery efforts and will probably stay in the coming year. The administration’s fatal fixation with GMA and her alleged “crimes” which the President himself said he had no solid evidence or even clue at all in a fast and furious desire to impress on the public their “transparency and accountability” line to the point that any and all problems they are now encountering they pin on the previous administration has not helped us any.
Unwarranted display of “purity”
The manner by which the administration has been bungling its moves over such lingering divisive issues as the secessionist and insurgency issues, land reform, involuntary disappearances and extrajudicial murders, relations with China and the Spratlys issue and, now, the widening rift with the Supreme Court and the entire judiciary, among other sectors, has only raised public concern that 2012 may ultimately turn out as more challenging than 2011.
In fact, the seeming rush which the President and his closest aides and their cohorts “pick a fight” with just about anyone and over any and all issues has truly unnerved a huge swath of the population but the international community as well. One keen observer noted, that we are suffering from Malacañang-inflicted wounds. The hypocrisy and intolerance which seem to animate the ruling coalition—from the Palace to Congress to powerful sections of the bureaucracy, to the so-called civil-society types to business groups—has made the entire country a battleground of sorts.
These spasmodic outbreaks, as if the entire crew remains warped in the campaign trail, has prevented the President and his crew from governing. They have transformed the government into a clutch of shibboleths in the nature of “daang matuwid”
psy-ops even as they have yet to explain their own flip- flopping on tax reform, corruption at the customs, unabated jueteng operations, murky activities at Pagcor and other money-making ventures. It seems behind every effort to issue a slogan is a move to conceal the inability of high officials to move in accord with their catch phrases. The observation of one noted American writer about the emergence of the “purists” on both sides of the political divide applies to the current ruling leadership: “They apparently view public office as a way to periodically display their purity.” Does this remind you of the “Black and White Movement,” the “Bantay Gloria” and “Occupy the SC” operations, which will continue to inhabit the country in the year ahead?
Notice how DSWD Secretary Dinky Soliman bumbled and hemmed and hewed and even invoked the name of God on questioning by Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago what her office has done with the multibillion-peso largesse called Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT). Even Budget Secretary Butch Abad himself has been at a loss trying to justify giving his province P369 million in infrastructure funds while starving other more deserving, populous provinces. Why, they cannot even explain what prompted them to be so cavalier in giving millions of pesos to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and other groups that are considered “enemies of the state” by the security establishment.
Well, displaying one’s “purity” and earnestness in pursuit of daang matuwid is well and good. That is, if it comes in tandem with a clear, responsible and effective governance, especially in the economic front. The latest tragedy now befalling Mindanao with Typhoon Sendong should wake our leaders. The coordination among national and local government offices was truly abysmal. And we are just talking about this case. What about the impact on the mining sector and investors of the spate of rebel attacks, kidnappings and murders in that “land of promise”? Truly, absent a keen sense of priorities and urgency and an effective and proper management of our affairs, we should brace for more challenges and burdens ahead. Sayang!
