THE national government has raised its third-quarter palay production forecast by 0.5 percent, a Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) report said.
The PSA-Bureau of Agriculture Statistics (BAS) report released on Tuesday expects palay production for the July-to-September period to increase to 3.01 million metric tons (MMT).
The projection is higher than the 2.99 MMT projected in July. However, the forecast is still 10.5 percent lower than the actual output of 3.36 MMT in the third quarter of last year.
“The expected increase in palay output could be attributed to improvement in yield due to sufficient water supply, lesser incidences of pests and diseases and more fertilizer usage,” the PSA said.
The PSA said that while harvest area may contract to 774,120 hectares from 774,670 hectares, higher yields are expected in the third quarter.
Palay yields may increase to 3.89 MMT per hectare from 3.86 MMT per hectare. This increase will be driven by sufficient water supply in Isabela, Iloilo, Laguna and Cagayan.
Government could, likewise, expect higher yields in Davao, Sultan Kudarat and the Mount Province due to less incidences of pests and increased fertilizer use.
However, lower yields are expected in Camarines Sur, Cavite, Quezon, Negros Occidental, Batangas and Palawan due to the adverse effects of Typhoon Glenda (international code name Rammasun).
“This may be due to the adverse effects of Glenda that affected yield and caused damage to palay in some areas. Lower output may also be expected due to damaged area caused by flashflood in North Cotabato, insufficient water supply due to hot weather during reproductive stage in Surigao Sur and Agusan Sur and incidences of rat and bird infestation in Leyte,” the PSA explained.
As of September, the PSA said 237,000 hectares, of the updated standing crop have been harvested. This represents about 1.68 million hectares, or 89.2 percent of the planting intentions for the October to December crop.
Of the 2.22 million hectares standing palay crop, 27.9 percent were at vegetative stage; around 53.4 percent were at reproductive stage; and 18.7 percent at maturing stage.
Meanwhile, the damage caused by Glenda may have placed a dent on the country’s corn production in the third quarter of the year, the PSA data showed.
Corn production for the third quarter of 2014 may reach 2.38 MMT. This is 0.6 percent below the earlier forecast of 2.40 MMT and 8.3 percent lower than last year’s level of 2.6 MMT.
“The probable decrease in corn output may be due to the adverse effects of typhoon Glenda on the standing crop, hot weather condition and incidences of rat and bird infestation,” the PSA said.
The areas which will likely see a decline in corn production are Camarines Sur and Masbate, where there will be declines in yield, as well as Quezon, Cavite and Laguna which will see contractions in harvest areas.
Further, the PSA said that in Negros Oriental, the decrease in yield could be due to hot weather during the vegetative stage of the crop.
Heavy rains in South Cotabato and Sultan Kudarat, as well as rat infestation and intense heat in Agusan Sur could decrease corn production in these areas in the third quarter.
About 496,000 hectares of the updated standing crop have been harvested. Around 515,000 hectares, or 82.3 percent of the planting intentions for this year’s October to December harvests have been realized.
Of the updated 882,000 hectares of standing corn crop, about 26.4 percent were at vegetative stage; 31 percent were at reproductive stage; and, 42.6 percent at the maturing stage.