WASHINGTON—Finance officials from the world’s major economies are searching for the right mix of policies to bolster a still-weak global recovery nearly six years after the Great Recession, while confronting a range of new threats from a soaring US dollar to a big drop in oil prices.
The financial officials from the Group of 20 (G-20) nations were also expressing concerns about potential market instability once the Federal Reserve (the Fed) starts increasing a key interest rate, which has been at a record low near zero since late 2008.
The discussions were being held among finance ministers and central bank presidents of the G-20, composed of traditional economic powers, such as the United States, Japan and Germany, and emerging countries, such as China, India and Brazil.
Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and Fed Chairman Janet Yellen were representing the US at the meetings, which began with a dinner on Thursday night and were to conclude with a news conference on Friday afternoon. Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan of Turkey will sum up the group’s discussions. Turkey holds the rotating chairmanship of the G-20 this year.
The G-20 talks were coming in advance of the spring meetings of the 188-nation International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its sister lending organization, the World Bank.
In addition to concerns about boosting global growth, the finance meetings were also addressing issues, including a plea for more help in fighting the Ebola outbreak in the West African nations of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. The presidents of those three nations were scheduled to meet on Friday with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
The finance meetings were taking place at a time when much of the global economy remains stuck in a prolonged period of sluggish growth following the 2008 financial crisis and a recession that was the worst in seven decades.
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told reporters on Thursday: “The good news is that the global recovery continues. The not-so-good news is that growth remains moderate and uneven.”
She said the goal of this week’s talks was to produce a revamped action plan that will “prevent this new mediocre from becoming the new reality.”
The IMF’s latest economic forecast predicted only modest overall growth and downgraded the prospects for some nations including the US, forecasting US growth of just 3.1 percent this year, a half-point lower than its January estimate. The reason: IMF economists believe the sharp rise in the value of the dollar will hurt American companies trying to export goods overseas.
Growth prospects in oil-exporting nations are being hurt by the big drop in oil prices over the past year, but those declines are expected to boost prospects in many oil-importing countries.
The IMF this week also raised new concerns that severe volatility in financial markets could be triggered if the Federal Reserve moves, as is widely expected, to start raising interest rates later this year. If the Fed’s rate hikes after a prolonged period of ultra-low rates cause investors to rush for the exits, it could cause stock prices to tumble and interest rates to rise sharply.
Previewing the G-20 discussions, Babacan told reporters on Thursday that the G-20 countries needed to do more to carry out commitments they made last year to jump-start growth by investing in infrastructure projects and removing barriers to trade.
“Growth is there, but it is weak …and uneven,” he said. The finance ministers will produce an action plan that will be discussed by President Barack Obama and other G-20 leaders at a scheduled summit meeting in Turkey in November. The finance officials are trying to achieve the goal of boosting global economic output by more than $2 trillion over the next five years.
AP