Peso
• Previous week: The local currency moved generally sideways in the week ending April 17 this year from the week prior. In particular, the peso opened the week at 44.67 to a dollar, from the 44.55 to a dollar in the previous week’s close. The peso then followed a continuous appreciating trend during the week to hit 44.66 to a dollar on Tuesday and 44.54 on Wednesday. The peso then further appreciated to hit 44.43 to a dollar on Thursday, and ended the week with more than a month’s high of 44.275 to a dollar. The total traded volume is at $2.877 billion during the week, slightly higher than the $2.67 billion in the previous week. The average trading close in this week is at 44.515 to a dollar.
• Next week: Market players are seen to set their focus to get fresher leads from data in the US, particularly on inflation rate. This, according to the Bank of the Philippine Islands, will dictate market movement this week.
BOP (March)
Monday, 20 April
• February’s BOP: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported last month that the Philippines’s balance of payments (BOP) yielded a net surplus of about $985 million in February this year. This is the largest monthly surplus seen for the country in 19 months, or since July 2013, when the BOP of the country hit $1.099 billion. February’s figure is an acceleration from the $136-million surplus seen in the previous month and the $345 million seen in the same month last year. It also brought the two-month total BOP position for 2015 at $1.121 billion, reversing the $4.135-billion deficit seen in the comparable period last year. Thus, due to the 19-month-high surplus in February, the country’s BOP position exceeded the government’s assumption of $1-billion surplus for the entire year.
• March’s BOP: In his previous assessments of the country’s economy, ING Bank economist Joey Cuyegkeng said the country’s BOP is expected to continuously rise due to the low value of oil imports this year. “This year’s oil-import bill could be 30 percent lower than last year’s $13 billion—which could mean a narrower trade deficit at worst of at $2-billion surplus this year. This on the assumption of a $60 per barrel of Dubai oil and a 6-percent increase in oil demand,” Cuyegkeng said. “Such a development could bring the current account back up to around $8 billion to $9 billion this year,” he added. The country’s current account is one of the components of the BOP in the country. BSP Deputy Governor for Monetary Stability Sector Diwa C. Guinigundo, meanwhile, said that while the BOP is performing well, they are still yet not so keen on revising the BOP assumption upward due to the volatility in international markets.