Inflation in November is likely to moderate further from the level seen in October based on early indicators pointing to lower price of rice and oil, a senior monetary official said on Monday.
At the sidelines of ceremonies launching the Marikina Credit Surety Fund (CSF), Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Deputy Governor for the Monetary Stability Sector Diwa C. Guinigundo said inflation in November was likely to have softened during the period.
The early indicators of softer inflation include the tamer price of the heavily weighted rice products, as well as the low oil prices during the month.
“Well, given the indicators, we would expect that consumer
price movement will continue to moderate,” Guinigundo said.
“Rice prices have started to come down. Oil prices remain low. It looks like the port congestion has been mitigated,” he added.
Adding to that is the end of the harvest season in December, which beneficial impact includes an increase in the supply of key food products in the country, according to the senior monetary official.
“Coming into December, the supply of rice will increase in addition to the expected 500,000 metric tons of imported rice. So far, I think we already imported about 100,000 MT,” Guinigundo said.
“And we have not experienced a major typhoon so far, so we do expect that there will be further moderation,” he added.
Earlier this year, the country’s inflation rate neared the upper end of the government’s annual target rate—prompting the central bank to tighten its monetary measures earlier during the year.
In particular, inflation peaked at 4.9 percent in July and August, or just below the central bank’s 3-percent to 5-percent target inflation for the year. Inflation in September moderated to 4.4 percent. This decelerated further the following month to 4.3 percent.
The inflation rate data for November is set for release in the first week of December.
The central bank governor was also expected to issue the central bank’s official inflation forecast for November this week.