The country’s paddy-rice production in the first half of the year could expand between 11.78 percent and 8.55 million metric tons (MMT), from 7.65 MMT recorded output a year ago, according to the latest report of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
In its report, titled “Rice and Corn Situation Outlook”, the PSA attributed the hike in production to the expansion of harvest area during the January-to-June 2017 period, after farmers have recovered from the damage wrought by El Niño last year.
“Harvest area[s] may increase from 1.93 million to 2.10 million hectares, or by 8.7 percent. Yield per hectare may improve by 2.83 percent, from 3.96 MT in 2016 to 4.08 MT in 2017,” the PSA said in its April round-production forecast report published on Tuesday.
The PSA projects that local palay production in the second quarter may reach 4.128 MMT, 11.38 percent higher than the 3.714 MMT recorded output in the same period last year. The PSA added that harvest area in the April-to-June period would expand by 11.86 percent to 948,610 hectares, from 848,030 hectares recorded a year ago.
“All regions may possibly have increments in production, except Central Luzon. Probable growths in production are expected due to increments in harvest areas resulting from availability of irrigation water/sufficient rainfall during planting period, and availability of seeds from Department of Agriculture-Regional Field Offices [DA-RFOs] and local government units,” the PSA said.
“In Cagayan Valley and Mimaropa the possible increments are attributed to movement of harvest to April 2017 due to intermittent rains in late-March 2017,” the PSA added.
However, the PSA noted the average yield in the second quarter would contract to 4.35 MT per hectare, from 4.38 MT per hectare level a year ago.
The Department of Agriculture also projects that palay production in the April-to-June period would reach the 4 MMT level on the back of better planting conditions, particularly favorable weather patterns.
The forecasts of the DA and the PSA were revealed after local rice farmers hiked their palay output in the first quarter by 12.38 percent to 4.42 million, from 3.93 MMT recorded output a year ago.
Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the government’s major statistical agency also forecasts that the country’s palay production in the third quarter would reach 3.146 MMT, 5.99 percent higher than the 2.968 MMT recorded production a year ago.
The PSA added that harvest area in the July-to-September period would expand by 6.61 percent to 794,400 hectares, from 745,140 hectares a year ago.
“Increments in production are foreseen in most of the regions, except the Ilocos region, Bicol, Zamboanga peninsula, Northern Mindanao and ARMM [Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao],” the PSA said.
“Probable increases in harvest areas attributed to farmers’ expectations on the availability of irrigation water/sufficient rainfall during planting period. Likewise, farmers are optimistic with the government interventions in palay production,” the PSA added.
However, the PSA noted that yield per hectare in the third quarter could slightly drop to 3.96 MT hectares from 3.98 MT hectares, recorded level during the same period last year.
The DA is eyeing a total palay output of 18.57 MMT this year, 5.33 percent higher than last year’s output of 17.63 MMT.
In the same report, the PSA said corn production in the first half of the year would expand by more than a quarter, or by 30.25 percent to 3.68 MMT, from 2.83 MMT output in 2016.
“Harvest area may expand from 0.90 million hectares to 1.10 million hectares, or by 21.77 percent. Yield per hectare may increase from 3.14 MT in 2016 to 3.36 MT in 2017, or by 6.97 percent,” the PSA said.
The PSA also forecasts that the corn output in the second quarter would reach 1.137 MMT, which is 44.58 percent higher than the 911,000 MT recorded output a year ago. The PSA added that harvest area would also expand by 47.75 percent to 400,920 hectares, from 271,350 hectares a year ago.
“Cagayan Valley, Northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen and the ARMM may post significant increments in production and harvest areas. These may be attributed to sufficient rainfall during planting period and availability of HYV seeds from the DA,” it said.
Based on corn farmers’ planting intentions for the third quarter, the PSA projects that the corn output during the period would reach 3.146 MMT, while harvest area would expand to 794,400 hectares.
“Based on farmers’ planting intentions, the July-to-September 2017 forecasts on production and harvest area may exceed their 2016 levels by 5.99 percent and 6.61 percent, accordingly,” the PSA said.
“Increments in production are foreseen in most of the regions, except the Ilocos region, Bicol, Zamboanga peninsula, Northern Mindanao and ARMM. Probable increases in harvest areas attributed to farmers’ expectations on the availability of irrigation water/sufficient rainfall during planting period. Likewise, farmers are optimistic with the government interventions in palay production,” the PSA added.
Image credits: Nonie Reyes