If the latest surveys up to this point are accurate, it’s all over but the shouting for Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte in the presidential derby.
Picture him in your mind at the Luneta Grandstand at noon of June 30 wearing a crisp Barong Tagalog, his right hand upraised, his left hand resting on a Bible, and repeating the oath of office, with his family—Sara and the two boys, plus who else?—by his side. Then, he prefaces his inaugural speech with a loud, “P____na, magtago na kayong mga kriminal at mga magnanakaw sa kaban ng bayan!” or words to that effect.
What’s wrong with this picture? That may happen, or it may not. After all, anything can take place in the last five days to Election Day, particularly if the other front-running candidates make full use of their money and political machinery to muscle their way to Malacañang.
But if Duterte makes it past Sen. Grace Poe, Vice President Jejomar C. Binay and Manuel A. Roxas II, he would achieve a first in Philippine political history: he would be the first city mayor to be catapulted to the highest elective position as chief executive and commander in chief of the armed forces.
Duterte’s 33-percent rating in the latest voters’ preference surveys, or an 11-percent lead over Poe, may be due largely to broad support for his core message, which is to wield an iron fist against crime, illegal drugs and corruption.
That core message of significantly reducing crime and corruption within six months has been hammered home by Duterte in sortie after sortie, even after his rivals had a headstart in the campaign, as it took him a while to make the decision to run.
While it is true that the police are making headway in the war against illegal drugs, they have been unable to stop or deter murder, rape, robbery and petty crimes, such as cell- phone snatching. The result is that many ordinary citizens feel unsafe and insecure out in the streets and even in their own homes.
At the same time, it appears that despite the Aquino administration’s mantra of daang matuwid or straight path, corruption goes unabated from the highest to the lowest levels of the bureaucracy. Transparency International, the global civil-society organization leading the fight against corruption, ranked the Philippines 95th out of 186 countries in the Corruption Perceptions Index for 2015, 10 notches lower than its rank in the previous year. It said the Philippines scored 35/100 in the latest survey, which covered 186 countries in 2015 and 175 countries in 2014.
We cannot overemphasize the fact that an unstable peace and order situation and pervasive corruption will set back efforts to sustain the momentum of economic growth needed to reduce poverty to manageable levels and extirpate one major cause of armed rebellion.
The promise to restore law and order, and curb corruption has overshadowed Duterte’s advocacy of federalism, the basic idea of which is to decentralize governance and allow the various regions to exercise real autonomy. The federalism agenda has long been pushed by PDP Laban Chairman Emeritus and former Sen. Nene Pimentel. It is what distinguishes Duterte’s platform from the rest of the pack, although this requires a constitutional amendment that could take time.
What also differentiates Duterte’s platform from the others is his pledge to talk peace with the New People’s Army (NPA), which has been waging an armed rebellion against the government for nearly five decades. Founding Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) Chairman Jose Ma. Sison has even been quoted in news reports as saying he would consider returning to the country if Duterte becomes president and perhaps call a temporary cease-fire to resume the stalled peace talks.
The prospect of a political solution to the communist rebellion is certainly welcome. But what could complicate things is Sison having raised the idea of a coalition government where presumably, the CPP/NPA/National Democratic Front would ask to be given a share of power under a Duterte administration.
Given the reality that NPA strength and political influence appear to have waned significantly since 1986, Sison’s idea of a coalition government at this time seems rather far-fetched and unrealistic considering that the NPA has not reached the strategic stalemate stage where it has achieved parity in armed strength and can launch positional warfare against the Armed Forces of the Philippines instead of the hit-and-run guerrilla tactics it still uses since it began in 1969. It cannot demand concessions from the other side without giving something in return. A temporary cease-fire, while talks are under way, would be a sign of good faith on both sides.
But to go back to Duterte.
If Duterte wins by a wide margin over his nearest rival, that will not necessarily translate to a “peaceful” administration. The very fact that he is targeting criminals and the corrupt early on means that he will earn their enmity. The human- rights community, not only at home, but also abroad will be closely monitoring how the anticrime campaign proceeds, as it could very well open the floodgates to abuses and bring about, not law and order, but only the peace of the graveyard and genuine fear of repression of the freedoms guaranteed by our fundamental law.
E-mail: ernhil@yahoo.com.
7 comments
isa ako sa mga undecided voters. kung ganito ang mga nasusulat palagi sa balita, nagiging mas interesado ako kung ano talaga ang kalalabasan kung si duterte ang maging presidente. baka sya na rin botohin ko, for the sake of speculation.
well, we speculate no matter who we put in office so why not speculate on someone who we think has more specific plans for our country and has in fact have a clearer picture on how to go about doing nation building.
No need to speculate about Roxas. He has long record of ineffectiveness on his sleeves.
Long ago Digong was brought hog tied in the mountain by the NPA and was about to be killed. I suspect this man was freed in exchange of his life and made friends to them. This man has a gun pointed on his temple so watch out, The ransom is the faith of the people. And we are bound to lose.
Another false black propaganda from the desperados.
Mar Roxas is the threat to all the Filipinos because he will continue the grave mistakes of Pnoy–being so attentive to those who goes against his will and forgetting the people who needs government services.
Why do people like Menorca and his family have to leave the country to seek safety from harassment. Philippine is already a sham paper democracy. The elite, the political warlords, and the powerful religious groups are the shadow dictators using their army of lawyers, prosecutors, and corrupt judges to intimidate and repress others, while running roughshod over any the rules & regulations that only apply to the rest of the populace. It’s no wonder that the masses are yearning for revolutionary change.