Shinzo Abe has so far warded off the curse that has afflicted many a Japanese prime minister—a collapse in public support—despite presiding over a lackluster economy. He could yet become the longest-serving leader since World War II.
Senior ruling party lawmakers are working to allow Abe to extend his tenure. Already in power almost four years, a potential change in party rules could see him in office until at least 2021, as long as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) keeps winning elections.
That’s even as Abe has failed to meet many of his own economic-policy goals under the Abenomics banner—deflation remains hard to budge, a stronger yen is starting to hurt exporters, and his efforts to get more women into the work force have struggled amid a shortage of childcare and elderly care.
The economy has shrunk in five of the 14 quarters since he took office. And he’s forged ahead with a bigger role for the military despite public unease in the strongly pacifist nation.
But while populist winds spread through many developed nations and put established leaders under pressure, Abe has retained broad public confidence; his Cabinet approval ratings are a creditable 50 percent to 60 percent. There is a lack of convincing alternatives in his own party, and he’s been assisted by a weak opposition.
The steady-as-she-goes mantra for Abe comes after a gaffe-prone first turn as prime minister almost a decade ago. While life isn’t necessarily much better for some people, a low jobless rate and decent corporate profits have meant it isn’t necessarily any worse.
“People don’t have much reason to complain when it comes to the economy,” said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors. “I think that’s the most important backbone behind his popularity. People feel their jobs are secure.”
Several surveys this month put voter approval at the highest level in two years, contrasting with the nose-diving popularity experienced by the previous six administrations, including Abe’s own first government. Under his leadership, the ruling coalition has won four straight national elections.
Despite losing several ministers to scandal, Abe has generally kept control of his party. His policies of increasing the defense budget and loosening restrictions on the armed forces, while divisive, could help him on the domestic front amid friction with China and an increasingly belligerent North Korea.
Abe has vowed to focus on reforming working practices in Japan during the new parliamentary session, seeking to narrow the gulf in pay between regular and nonregular workers and allow more people to combine their roles as carers with paid work.
The LDP has also begun debate on changing a rule that limits party leaders to two straight three-year terms. It aims to make a decision in time for the party convention next year, enabling Abe to potentially stand for reelection when his six years are up in 2018.
That could see him stay on beyond the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The move came after Abe appointed Toshihiro Nikai, a vocal proponent of the extension, as his second-in-command in the party hierarchy.
If Abe were to step down after the Olympics, he would have served almost nine years as prime minister—longer than anyone under the postwar political system. The LDP itself has been in power for most of the past 60 years.
“Whatever we think of Abenomics, we have to remember that the Japanese work force is basically on a full-employment basis right now,” said Jun Okumura, a visiting scholar at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs.
‘Not hurting’
“Although the inflation target worries people who care about what the Bank of Japan does, in the meantime, inflation is not hurting people with fixed incomes and new graduates are finding it much easier to find jobs,” Okumura said.
Employment for new graduates rose to 74.7 percent this year—the sixth consecutive rise—and overall unemployment fell to 3 percent in July, its lowest since 1995.
Most voters seem little concerned by the sluggish pace of economic change. A survey published by the Yomiuri newspaper this month found only 33 percent of respondents said they thought Abe’s policies would improve the economy, while 55 percent said they expected no such improvement. Still, 62 percent supported his Cabinet—the highest level since 2014.
A poll published by the Nikkei newspaper on Monday found support for Abe’s Cabinet had slipped 4 percentage points to 58 percent, with 38 percent saying they approved of his economic policies.
‘Still waiting’
Tomoyo Matsushita, a 29-year-old employee at a trading firm, said she agreed with Abe’s agenda, but was yet to be convinced it was working.
“I think Abenomics has a valuable goal,” she said. “But I’m still waiting for the economy to get better.” Longer leadership terms could provide stability, which would be beneficial, senior LDP lawmaker Hideki Makihara said in a recent interview with Bloomberg. He compared Japan with China, where presidents typically serve 10-year terms.
Makihara, who is on the panel considering the changes, denied a shift in the rules would be made specifically for Abe. The LDP needs to tread carefully to avoid alienating some voters, who are cautious on whether Abe should stay on past 2018.
The Yomiuri poll showed 48 percent of respondents favored an extension, while 43 percent were opposed. Other recent polls by Kyodo and the Mainichi newspaper found a majority were against the rule change.
Any downturn in the economy, which could be sparked by the strengthening yen, could also damage Abe’s popularity and his chances of staying on, according to Okubo, who attributes the current economic mood largely to luck and the Bank of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy. “I think the chances are 50/50 that he will stay on.”
Meanwhile, Abe pledged on Monday to accelerate his mix of policies to prop up Japan’s economic recovery and speed up parliamentary approval of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact.
In his policy statement opening the 66-day parliamentary session, Abe outlined an extra set of stimulus measures to help the economic recovery and spur more consumer and corporate spending. He aims to push through a supplementary budget within weeks to implement the measures in the package, which is worth ¥28 trillion ($2.8 billion).
Abe reiterated that the global economy faces “major risks,” such as uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union and the slowdown of emerging economies, including China, stressing the need to accelerate his Abenomics policy mix of fiscal stimulus and structural reforms.
“We’ll further accelerate Abenomics and maximize the pace of moving out of deflation,” he said.
Abe said the TPP is a key part of his growth policies, though he did not set a specific deadline for parliamentary approval of the trade pact, apparently amid uncertainty ahead of the US presidential election in November. He only hinted at a timing of TPP approval sometime later this year.
“An early entry into force of the TPP will be a big chance and we will aim to quickly achieve a ¥1-trillion [$10-billion] target [of annual agricultural exports],” Abe said.
He said he seeks to reach a basic economic partnership agreement with the European Union by the end of December, a target that Japan has previously set.
Abe highlighted the economy in his address, while touching on his long-cherished but divisive political goal of revising Japan’s US occupation-era Constitution. He urged a national debate as a step to gain support for a revision, but mentioned the constitution only briefly at the end of his speech.
Bloomberg News and AP
Image credits: AP/Koji Sasahara