By James Manyika, Michael Chui and Katy George
We have just published new research about automation’s potential economic effects, based on an in-depth analysis of more than 2,000 workplace activities across 800 occupations. We focused specifically on activities because all occupations consist of numerous activities, each of which can be automated to a varying degree.
We found that half the activities people are paid to do in the global economy could be automated by adapting current technology. The most automatable activities involve data collection, data processing and physical work in environments like factories, which make up 51 percent of employment activities (not jobs) and $2.7 trillion in US wages. These activities are most prevalent in sectors such as manufacturing, food services, transportation and warehousing, and retail.
Over the next decade only about 5% of all occupations can be entirely automated using today’s technology. But about 30 percent of the activities in 60 percent of all occupations could be automated—which will affect everyone from welders to landscape gardeners to mortgage brokers to CEOs. We estimate that about 25 percent of CEOs’ time is currently spent on activities that machines could do, such as analyzing reports and data to inform decisions.
Automation’s potential is broader now than it has been historically because technologies including robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly able to accomplish not just physical but also cognitive activities, from lip reading to driving. As companies deploy automation, we need to think more about mass redeployment of workers rather than unemployment, and we need to equip people with the skills they’ll need for the workforce of tomorrow—such as interacting more closely with machines.
Our research suggests that future automation could raise productivity growth globally from 0.8 percent to 1.4 percent annually, which can make a meaningful contribution to global economic growth and compensate for the demographic headwinds of aging populations. For companies around the world, automation can capture substantial value—and not just from labor substitution. These technologies enable higher productivity, better quality, greater safety and the opportunity to scale up or adopt new business models.
James Manyika is the director of the McKinsey Global Institute. Michael Chui is a McKinsey Global Institute partner. Katy George is a managing partner at McKinsey.