IT has been two weeks since the decision was handed down in the case the Philippines filed against China before the Permanent Court of Arbitration. While many were expecting some sort of dramatic movement, nothing has really changed.
For China’s part, it has “barked” a lot, but, at this point, has not done any “biting;” there is no indication there have been any changes at the Panatag Shoal. There also have not been any undue encounters between the US Navy and the People’s Liberation Army Navy.
By the same token, Filipino fishermen are still staying away from their traditional fishing grounds. The only substantial development from our side is that former President Fidel V. Ramos may be going to China to talk over the situation with Chinese officials.
Foreign Secretary Perfecto R. Yasay Jr. has come under intense criticism for what he has said and done in the last two weeks. The criticism may be valid, because he seems to have been sending mixed signals to both Filipinos and Chinese. But, then again, the issue is surrounded in “mixed signals”.
The Asean cannot decide on a unified response either because a) the Philippines is not pushing for it; or b) China’s Asean allies are blocking a strong statement against China. It all depends on who you listen to for the answer.
The European Union also has not been able to unify behind a consensus declaration. The French say they intend to send a ship or two to ensure the freedom of navigation in the regional waters. But this is going to happen “sometime this year,” and France has much more serious
terrorism problems to deal with.
In Manila US Secretary of State John F. Kerry echoed the US response about “both parties”—China and the Philippines—adhering to and following the international rule of law. One interpretation of those laws should mean the Philippines would have completely unrestricted access to the waters of its Exclusive Economic Zone, but that is not happening.
Further, Kerry stated that “he had candid and constructive discussions, including a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Monday, about a ‘path forward,’ in light of a decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration.” That sounds all well and good, but we were hoping that the way forward would mean China’s going back to its own territory and taking its ships and personnel.
Kerry also met with Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs Fumio Kishida and Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop for the sixth ministerial meeting of the so-called Trilateral Strategic Dialogue. From this meeting came the statement: “The three voiced their strong opposition to any coercive unilateral actions that could alter the status quo and increase tensions.”
Wait a minute. The “status quo” is that China is occupying territory whose economic rights belong to the Philippines. If we wanted the status quo, we would not have gone to the Arbitration Court. It is going to be a long year.
Image credits: Jimbo Albano