THE spat between the Philippines and China over isles and rocky features at the South China Sea (SCS) may result in a confrontation between China and the United States.
China, as a growing economic and military giant, is flexing its muscles to make its presence felt in the world. After suffering a hundred years of humiliation under Western powers, it is poised to challenge America, the most powerful country on the planet at the moment.
China’s rise is inevitable, while the US decline is predictable and the two countries are predicted to be at parity, militarily and economically, within two decades,
While the most populous country in the world stand as one over the SCS, however, the Filipinos remain divided on the issue. And this immediately apparent when the Duterte administration, by its acquiescent, repudiated six years of labors by the Aquino administration, challenging China’s claims.
The Tapatan media forum has exposed the division in Philippine society, split between the views expressed by Albert Encomienda, former head of the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) Maritime Affairs Desk, and Rommel Banlaoi of the Center For International and National Security Studies (CINSS).
Banlaoi said our petty quarrel would be for nothing, after all. There is fear among military strategists that if there happens a misencounter or miscommunication, the United States and China might eventually fall into the Thucydides Trap—the feared unintended clash of giants.
Banlaoi said he was in Washington, D.C. two weeks ago where following an assessment, experts like him had concluded that the United States will still be the major power in the foreseeable future. He sees the foreseeable future—15 years from now, after which there may be another power rising.
“We are in that transitioi period and China, in that power transition, is very, very, serious in projecting that power in the SCS,” Banlaoi said.
But for the US, he added that that kind of projection is threatening because the Scs, which used to be “an American lake,” would now turn into China’s lake.
“For the US, as an established power, that is not acceptable and when it comes to freedom of China and the US they have different interpretation of the meaning of freedom of navigation that the US insists it should enjoy.
“To China, freedom of navigation is only limited to economic activities, but when it comes to military activities, particularly to the EEZ, then military activities should be limited.”
On the other hand, Banaloi said the US considers the Scs was part of international waters, where freedom of navigation should be enjoyed, not only for economic, but also for military purposes.
“But when it comes to military aspects for freedom of navigation, China is very wary of American role, China says ok, you can navigate for military vessels, but only for innocent passage,” but if that military vessels are conducting surveillance and military activities and other military operations of freedom of navigation for military operations, for China that is not acceptable.”
This way, Banlaoi said the Scs is not only an issue between China and the other claimants, “but an issue between two competing major powers.”
“And this might provide the proverbial Thucydides trap that might ignite future conflict between China and the US and that is why there is tremendous efforts on both side to promote military dialogue in order to prevent unintended military encounter in the SCS.”
In the light of the latest developments, China’s mouthpieces—Global Times and People’s Daily—said: “Beijing must prepare for ‘military confrontation’ in the South China Sea,” as China began naval drills in the area ahead of an international tribunal ruling over the maritime dispute.
On Tuesday China began a week of naval exercises at the waters off Paracel Islands, that are also being claimed by Vietnam.
However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei when asked about the editorial in Global Times and China Daily said the government was committed to peace.
“China will work with Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] countries to safeguard the peace and stability of the South China Sea,” he told a daily news briefing.
However, Encomienda said that for his part freedom of navigation is not a part of operative facts on the ground.
Encomienda said that freedom of navigation has not been disturbed in the SCS and “50 trillion tons of trade in the SCS, has never been disrupted under the Aquino admininistration.”
“When the US undertook freedom of navigation operations within 12 nautical miles of the Chinese installations, was it ever challenged by China?” No.”
However, from the Chinese point of view, those acts are very provocative, Encomienda said.
“Let me repeat, I’m not for China or against the US. I am for the Philippines. I love the Philippines but it is a fact that the US has its own hegemonic agenda. No less that Hillary Clinton said the US wants to maintain the status quo in the world through a rules-based modality.”
Encomienda said that whatever China is doing in the SCS, “it is only trying to establish its natural sphere of influence that it has enjoyed for more than 2,000 years.”
“Just as the US having aspirations for world hegemony there is nothing wrong with Chinas aspirations.”
“The thing is in the present situation, the US cannot accept that China will exercise hegemony in the SCS,” Encomienda added.
He said, “if we examine the mutual defense treaty with the US, it is applicable only when there is an armed attacked against the US and the Philippines and in the Pacific area.”
Encomineda said that in World War II America’s definition of the Pacific is very clear, but today, it now includes the SCS and the Indo-Pacific area.
“So, again…I said this in another forum and went viral, all against me, but all I said was, “The US following itself, is doing everything right for itself, pursuing its national interest, China is doing everything right for itself, pursuing its national interests.”
Now the problem really is, if I may so, the Philippines is caught in the middle and I’m not sure whether we are on the right track siding with the US,” Encomienda added.
“Because any minor incident can trigger a major war that both two powers do not want to occur,” Banlaoi said.
Banlaoi’s views were put into clearer perspective in the Atlantic.
“More than 2,400 years ago, the Athenian historian Thucydides offered a powerful insight: ‘It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made war inevitable.’ Others identified an array of contributing causes of the Peloponnesian War. But Thucydides went to the heart of the matter, focusing on the inexorable, structural stress caused by a rapid shift in the balance of power between two rivals. Note that Thucydides identified two key drivers of this dynamic: The rising power’s growing entitlement, sense of its importance, and demand for greater say and sway, on the one hand, and the fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo this engenders in the established power, on the other.”
“In the case about which he wrote in the fifth century BC, Athens had emerged over a half century as a steeple of civilization, yielding advances in philosophy, history, drama, architecture, democracy and naval prowess. This shocked Sparta, which, for a century, had been the leading land power on the Peloponnese peninsula. As Thucydides saw it, Athens’s position was understandable. As its clout grew, so too did its self-confidence, it’s consciousness of past injustices, its sensitivity to instances of disrespect, and its insistence that previous arrangements be revised to reflect new realities of power. It was also natural, Thucydides explained, that Sparta interpreted the Athenian posture as unreasonable, ungrateful, and threatening to the system it had established—and within which Athens had flourished.”
“War between the US and China is more likely than recognized at the moment. Indeed, judging by the historical record, war is more likely than not,” the authors of the article argued.
“Thucydides chronicled objective changes in relative power, but he also focused on perceptions of change among the leaders of Athens and Sparta—and how this led each to strengthen alliances with other states in the hopes of counterbalancing the other. But entanglement runs both ways. [It was for this reason that George Washington famously cautioned America to beware of ‘entangling alliances.’] When conflict broke out between the second-tier city-states of Corinth and Corcyra [now Corfu], Sparta felt it necessary to come to Corinth’s defense, which left Athens little choice but to back its ally. The Peloponnesian War followed. When it ended 30 years later, Sparta was the nominal victor. But both states lay in ruin, leaving Greece vulnerable to the Persians.”
The lessons of history seems not to be lost on China’s Xi Jin Ping, who said, shortly after his meeting with President Barack Obama in the United States: “There is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides Trap in the world. But should major countries time and again make the mistakes of strategic miscalculation, they might create such traps for themselves.”
The flagship newspaper of China’s ruling Communist Party on Wednesday warned Washington that there would be a “price” to pay if it crosses China’s “bottom line” by meddling in disputes over the SCS.
The People’s Daily editorial comes as Beijing ramps up efforts to assert its stance ahead of a ruling by an international tribunal in a case filed by the Philippines challenging China’s claims to most of the SCS. China is boycotting the case before The Hague-based court, and says it will not accept the verdict.
The paper said bilateral ties and regional stability were at stake, and that the US should recognize that “there is a bottom line with every issue, and a price will be paid if that line is crossed.”
“If the US, regardless of the cost, chooses the path of ‘brinkmanship’ that pressures and intimidates others, there will be only one result, that is, that the US bears all the responsibility for possibly further heightening tensions in the South China Sea,” the editorial said.
With AP
Image credits: AP