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The
Philippines’ robust economy continues to perform well,
achieving a GDP growth of 6.6 percent in the third quarter
of this year.
Acting
secretary of socioeconomic planning Augusto Santos said
the growth was based on the performance of the
agriculture, industry and services sectors with domestic
demand as well as government policy and program
intervention acting as the catalysts.
“It is
very welcome news, though this does not come as a surprise
given the strong growth registered in the past two
quarters,” Santos told local media.
Favorable
weather and the department of agriculture’s Quick
Turnaround Scheme (QTS) were able to help propel the
agriculture, fishery and forestry sectors, which account
for a fifth of the economy, as it grew 5.6 percent in the
third quarter as opposed to a moderate 3.6 percent in the
previous quarter. This year the QTS saw increased
investments, particularly in irrigation facilities,
expansion programs, credit facilitation and knowledge
dissemination.
The
industry sector achieved a 6.1-percent growth rate, a
1.2-percent year-on-year increase, mostly due to better
performance by the manufacturing and construction sectors.
The
services sector, which represents nearly 50 percent of
total GDP, was up 7.2 percent from last year’s 5.8
percent. Trade, private services, transportation,
communication and storage were among the main contributors
to the expansion. However, the success and rapid rise of
the business-process outsourcing industry was the driving
force behind the service sector’s growth.
Commenting
on the third-quarter performance, economist Solita C.
Monsod told local media that substantial growth in
investment or capital formation during the period was a
strong signal expansion is becoming investment-led, which
is “more sustainable” than growth based on consumption.
For the
three-month period from July to September, capital
investment grew by 8.9 percent, higher than the
2.1-percent increase recorded last year.
A general
improvement in household incomes, better labor-market
conditions and a low inflation rate helped increase
consumer spending by 5.6 percent during the period, and
government consumption rose by 8.3 percent as the
administration continues to implement new projects,
particularly in infrastructure.
The
results put the country well on track to surpassing the
government’s prediction for annual GDP growth of between
6.1 percent and 6.7 percent. The previous two quarters saw
growth of 7.1 percent at the beginning of the year and a
20-year high of 7.5 percent in the second period.
“With
growth generally spilling over into the next quarter as
domestic demand strengthens, the Philippine economy should
be able to surpass the projected target,” Santos told
reporters.
He added,
“We can easily reach 7 percent for the full year. Barring
any sudden changes in the external environment, the
economy is set for further strong growth in the fourth
quarter.”
While
analysts and economists remain optimistic the Philippines
can achieve GDP growth of 7 percent for the full year,
there is some concern that rising oil prices, weak exports
and political uncertainty may put that figure in jeopardy.
“Inflationary pressures arising from the volatility of the
oil market must be vigilantly monitored as this may be
carried forward and pose downward pressure on future
growth prospects,” said
Santos.
The export
market is an area of great concern. With the appreciation
of the peso, exports rose only 4.85 percent in the first
nine months. The Philippine Export Association has already
revised its original export-growth forecast down from 10
percent to between 4.4 percent and 5.5 percent. As the US
economy continues to weaken, these latest figures are not
expected to improve.
The impact
of political uncertainty and its effect on the overall
economy are more difficult to predict. On the heels of
another bid to overthrow the Arroyo administration, which
took place on November 29 as rebel soldiers led by Sen.
Antonio Trillanes IV occupied a Makati City hotel in an
attempt rally support, it does not bode well for the image
of the country and for attracting foreign investment.
That said,
this is certainly not the first time such an incident has
occurred, and private sector leaders, while disappointed,
are not too concerned.
Sammie
Lin, president of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and
Industry, told local media the occupation of the hotel was
“unfortunate” as it comes at a time when the economy is
starting to pick up. However, “Compared with previous
incidents, this is not that big. The business community is
not that worried,” he said. |