Unflattering surveys

The Arroyo administration definitely scored precious political points with its tough handling of the November 29 Peninsula standoff, thus allowing it to weather another political challenge to its continuance in office. But that shouldn’t mean it can afford to be complacent. Two recent surveys, in fact, bode ill for Mrs. Arroyo. They should be construed as danger signals by Malacañang Palace because they could trigger more political unrest in the future.

The first survey, conducted by Pulse Asia from October 20 to 31, or before the Peninsula failed rebellion, says Mrs. Arroyo is perceived by Filipinos as the most corrupt Philippine president in recent history.  She topped the list, with 42 percent of respondents nationwide; former strongman Ferdinand Marcos was in second place with 35 percent while ousted President Joseph Estrada ranked third, with 16 percent. Former presidents Fidel Ramos, with 5 percent, and Corazon Aquino, 1 percent, were at the bottom of the list.

What’s interesting in the survey results is that those belonging to the economic bracket ABC believe Mrs. Arroyo is the most corrupt president, giving her a 50-percent rating. If the educated and the well-off in society perceive Mrs. Arroyo as the most corrupt president, that should send alarm bells ringing in Malacañang, as these are the sectors in society that could influence the outcome of the elections in 2010 or even lend support to regime change through extraconstitutional means. 

Another key finding of the survey is that Cory Aquino is perceived as the least or not corrupt president of the country, with 66 percent. She is followed by Estrada as the least or not corrupt with 11 percent. Marcos, ousted by a popular revolt in 1986, was the third perceived to be the least or not corrupt with 9 percent, while Ramos got 6 percent. Mrs. Arroyo landed in the bottom of the list with 5 percent. This is puzzling, to say the least. If Cory Aquino is perceived as “clean” by many Filipinos, why wasn’t she able to galvanize popular opposition to Mrs. Arroyo after the “Hello Garci” scandal? That should make for a fascinating study by sociologists and political scientists who want to explore how the Filipino psyche works. 

Understandably, administration apologists have been quick to dismiss the latest survey results as a matter of “perception” rather than objective reality. But that’s what surveys are all about, to gauge people’s views at particular points.

Another survey which results should of concern to the Arroyo administration is the latest one by the Asian Development Bank. The ADB survey shows the Philippines lagging behind most of its Asian neighbors—overtaken even by Indonesia and Sri Lanka—in terms of living standards.

This is certain to cause much chagrin to the country’s economic managers. But the results of the study, instead of sending them sulking in the corner, should really spur them to accelerate efforts to make the benefits of claimed economic growth to filter down to the grassroots, where it matters.

The ADB study compared economic benchmarks like income, consumption expenditure and capital formation and showed the Philippines falling below the regional average of HK$20,432 per capita real gross domestic product (GDP). The richest people in 23 economies in Asia, according to the study, are in Brunei Darussalam (HK$269,971); Singapore (HK$235,923); Macao, China (HK$211,907); Hong Kong, China (HK$202,941); and Taiwan (HK$148,275).

The Philippines, with a per capita real GDP of HK$16,675, is among the 11 economies falling below the Asian average of HK$18,396. What this means is that Filipinos do not earn enough to reach the norm for the region. We rank even lower than Indonesia and Sri Lanka. These two countries also outrank us when it comes to household living standards, measured by actual final consumption expenditure or  AFCE, which is the sum of individual consumption expenditures both by households and by government and is the best available measure of household living standards.

Sri Lanka has a per capita real AFCE of HK$17,464 while Indonesia has HK$14,970. Spending by individual households, nongovernment institutions and government in the Philippines was at HK$14,049, a bit higher than the regional average of HK$12,878.

The ADB survey tells us in no uncertain terms that we do have a lot of catching up to do with our Asian neighbors. The Arroyo administration issues regular economic updates telling us that the peso is improving, the stock market is bullish, the budget deficit is narrowing down and that our growth rate this year will reach 7 percent. But viewed within the context of the Asian region, it turns out we have yet to recover from the dubious distinction as “the sick man of Asia.” 

The obvious conclusion: the next time we’re bombarded by glowing official statistics saying we’ve never had it so good in the economic sphere, it is probably fair to ask: “Which country are you talking about?”

AND now for the good news: some people might overlook it, but for those of us frustrated no end by the past years’ spectacle of reenacted budgets and a Congress in deadlock with the Executive on what should be its most important output for the year, i.e., the General Appropriations Act, the pace and developments in this year’s budget process come as a refreshing tableau.

The clock is ticking toward 2015 when the country will be held to account for its commitments to the Millennium Development Goals, or the MDGs.

I think I am having what my friend Eric calls a “senior moment.” It is not so much that I am forgetful. I am not. It is that I tend to lose my patience more easily with other people’s foolishness. And local stock-market investors are starting to annoy me. But before I get to the investors, let me talk about some other dumb people.

About Town: Unflattering surveys

The Arroyo administration definitely scored precious political points with its tough handling of the November 29 Peninsula standoff, thus allowing it to weather another political challenge to its continuance in office. But that shouldn’t mean it can afford to be complacent.

Coming home

Attributed to the prophet Isaiah from Jerusalem, this section of the book was probably written sometime later in the 6th century BC and by an anonymous “Deutero-Isaiah.”

So much disappointment in so many quarters over something so expected. Go figure.

The Federal Reserve ratified consensus expectations yesterday when it lowered both its benchmark overnight rate and discount rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.