Dumb, dumber and dumbest

I think I am having what my friend Eric calls a “senior moment.” It is not so much that I am forgetful. I am not. It is that I tend to lose my patience more easily with other people’s foolishness. And local stock-market investors are starting to annoy me. But before I get to the investors, let me talk about some other dumb people.

As usual, high on my list of ‘dumb’ are the economists who are the ‘experts’ on the Philippine economy. From Bloomberg.com: “Philippines: The statistics office may today say exports grew 4.3 percent in October from a year earlier, down from 4.6 percent in September, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey.”

Bear in mind that Bloomberg is THE financial news service. That is all these guys are supposed to be doing; tracking the money flow and what propels it for the whole world. You would think that the economic contributors to Bloomberg would be the best and the brightest. And these are not the academic economists. These men and women work for the biggest global financial institutions and whose opinions are followed by the managers of hundreds of billions of dollars.

So what were the actual exports numbers from the Philippines for October? From the BusinessMirror: “Increased shipments of electronics products and coconut oil boosted the country’s export earnings by 10.5 percent in October this year, according to the latest data released by the National Statistics Office. Export earnings for October were placed at $4.648 billion from $4.207 billion in October 2006.”

We are not talking about missing the mark by a little. Bloomberg’s experts were off by more than 50 percent. Therefore, if any foreign money people were investing based on these forecasts, they lost big time. The question then becomes, how could they miss by so much. I mean we are not talking about sari-sari store-size businesses that account for “electronics products which rose 9.4 percent to $2.873 billion from $2.627 billion in October 2006”. These are multi-national manufacturing companies with operations in the Philippines that make up the bulk of the nearly $3 billion exported this past October. Not being able to come even close to the actual export numbers is just plain dumb.

Now I am having problems with the local market investors. Note again the export news. The US economy, if you ask the average newspaper pundit writing in the Philippines, is as said one “going to hell in a hand basket”. If that is true, then the Philippines certainly is not suffering in the most obvious way it should be; falling exports. This rebound in export growth is good and the stock market should be going higher, too. Wrong.

Then the IMF revises its annual forecast for both 2007 and 2008 economic growth. From Thomson Financial: “The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday it has raised the growth forecasts for the Philippine economy to 6.7 percent for 2007 and to 6 percent for next year. The IMF previously projected growth rates of 6.3 percent for this year and 5.8 percent for 2008”. And the stock market again does not go up.

So what are local investors watching? The New York Stock Exchange of all foolish things. The Dow Jones index fell because the Federal Reserve only cut interest rates by a quarter point instead of a half point. The New York market wanted a larger cut and was disappointed. But it seems that our local investors cannot figure out that what is better for the US might not be better for the Philippines. The 25 basis point drop is much better for OUR economy than a larger decrease.

The dollar is dropping like a rock and, therefore, the peso is appreciating somewhat too fast. A 50-point cut in US interest rates accelerates the dollar drop. That is something that we do not need in the Philippines. So this 25-point rate cut is much better for the Philippines than a 50-point cut. Further, our exports are fine, not great, but good and the 25-point Fed cut will keep things at least stabilized in the United States.

What should have happened yesterday was that the US market should have gone down and the PSE should have gone up. The news should have been greeted with elation and strong stock-buying here. However, the local market fell 1.85 percent. Dumb and dumber.

Now for the dumbest. In Tuesday’s column, “Bringing Asian Gambling to the Philippines,” I inadvertently (Note to myself: MUST stop drinking cheap red wine) did not include PhilWeb Corp. as an important Pagcor partner and PSE-listed player in online gambling. My friend and PhilWeb president Dennis Valdes has promised me a fine bottle of Infanta, Quezon lambanog for Christmas. 

E-mail comments to mangun@email.com.

AND now for the good news: some people might overlook it, but for those of us frustrated no end by the past years’ spectacle of reenacted budgets and a Congress in deadlock with the Executive on what should be its most important output for the year, i.e., the General Appropriations Act, the pace and developments in this year’s budget process come as a refreshing tableau.

The clock is ticking toward 2015 when the country will be held to account for its commitments to the Millennium Development Goals, or the MDGs.

I think I am having what my friend Eric calls a “senior moment.” It is not so much that I am forgetful. I am not. It is that I tend to lose my patience more easily with other people’s foolishness. And local stock-market investors are starting to annoy me. But before I get to the investors, let me talk about some other dumb people.

About Town: Unflattering surveys

The Arroyo administration definitely scored precious political points with its tough handling of the November 29 Peninsula standoff, thus allowing it to weather another political challenge to its continuance in office. But that shouldn’t mean it can afford to be complacent.

Coming home

Attributed to the prophet Isaiah from Jerusalem, this section of the book was probably written sometime later in the 6th century BC and by an anonymous “Deutero-Isaiah.”

So much disappointment in so many quarters over something so expected. Go figure.

The Federal Reserve ratified consensus expectations yesterday when it lowered both its benchmark overnight rate and discount rate by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively.