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ANDHRA
PRADESH, India—An expert from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said “adaptation is
needed now” in agricultural production in order to
minimize the adverse effects of extreme climate change
brought by increased carbon- dioxide (CO2) emission.
Martin
Parry, cochairman of the Working Group II of the Nobel
Prize-winning IPCC, said, “Mitigation will take decades…
we should take adaptation upfront. Mitigation has been
at focus…. We need to adapt. It is crucial [to ensure
food security],” apparently having in mind the slow
action being taken by the biggest polluting countries,
such as the US and China, to lessen CO2 emission.
Parry
spoke at a news conference at the International Crops
Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (Icrisat)
in Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India, after delivering a
speech titled “The implications of climate change for
crop yields, global food supply and risk of hunger.” The
occasion was the 35th anniversary celebration of Icrisat.
The board of directors of Philippine Science Journalists
Association Inc., including this writer, were invited to
the event.
In his
speech, Parry said adaptation in agriculture could
involve the use of new crop varieties that are heat and
drought-resistant; use of irrigation; shift in cropping
zone; and reform in the global food system.
Underlining the “formidable” challenge posed by climate
change which “should not be underestimated,” he said the
researches and projects being done by institutions, such
as Icrisat, in drought-proofing and providing crops
tolerant to heat and high altitudes are important.
“Icrisat’s projects should be incorporated in
adaptation…. It has shown extraordinary achievement,” he
said. However, he clarified that he is not against
mitigation.
The
crops planted in semi-arid areas in Africa, India, China
and several parts of Southeast Asia, including the
Philippines, that Icrisat is improving through
hybridization and biotechnology, are peanut, chickpea
(garbanzos), sorghum, pigeonpea (kadyos), and pearl and
finger millet.
It is
also involved in the rehabilitation of degraded lands,
community-watersheds management and integrated
management of natural resources, among others.
Icrisat
director general William Dar added that the institute is
working on crops that can sequester carbon, like
pigeonpea. It prevents carbon emission because of its
properties, like having long roots and lignin content
that prevents it from easily decomposing (as against the
easily decomposed cellulose that contributes to CO2
emission).
The
International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) based in
Los Baños, Laguna, is developing rice varieties for
flooded areas, Icrisat deputy director general Dyno
Keatinge said.
The
Philippine Rice Research Institute in Nueva Ecija is
likewise doing research on rice that can adapt in
extreme climatic conditions.
Asked
what he expects from the
Bali conference
on climate change that starts today, Parry described the
conference as a “multiring circus” from where he “does
not see a bright light.” He also advised the media to
“prick the balloon” if they see grandstanding
politicians.
Dar
called upon the nations in the North and South to make
things happen by enhancing their coping-mechanism
culture.
In his
speech, Parry said rainfall intensities may also change
with projected increase in intensity of the Indian
monsoon around 2050, with change in annual number of
rainy days and change in rainfall per rainy day; or
there may be more rainfall in rainy days but fewer
rainy days.
The
other projected changes he said are:
§
Sea
levels will rise 0.1 to 0.8 meters
§
More
tropical cyclones
§
More
frequent very hot days—with some of these changes
already occurring now
§
Projecting shifts of agro-ecological zones
§
Changes
in length of growing season
§
Shift of
zones of crop-suitability
§
Estimation of altered yields
He said
there will be “crop yield decreases in developing
countries” and, ironically, there will be “yield
increases in developed [temperate] countries” as a
result of the rise in temperature.
In one
of the scenarios under study, crop-yield decreases “are
especially significant in Africa, and parts of Asia with
expected losses of up to 30 percent.” A result of
decrease in yield, he said, is rise in prices which will
affect the poor the most.
He
stressed the geographical differences reflected in the
additional numbers estimated to be at risk of
undernourishment, which for 2080 will range from 40
million, based on the smallest amount of warming, to 170
million, based on the highest warming range. The studies
reviewed considered changes in temperature from 2°
Celsius to above 3° Celsius.
Parry
added that the vast majority, or an estimated 65 percent
of the people at additional risk of hunger in the
future, are in
Africa. He said this partly reflects the greater-than-average
reduction in yields, but also due to higher levels of
vulnerability caused by lower incomes. He said the
vulnerable people—the poor, the old, the women and
children—will be adversely affected. |
