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THE
optimism of businessmen has rebounded with the approach
of Christmas and now approximates its year-ago peak, the
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported Friday.
At its
latest business-expectations survey, the number of
businesses taking a positive view in the final quarter
rose with the lifting of the confidence index to 48 from
40.9 in the third.
The
diffusion index or CI reflects the number taking a
positive view less the number taking the opposite.
Business
optimism has been falling since it peaked at 49.4 in the
final quarter last year, pushed down by a host of
external as well as internally driven events.
Apart
from the approach of Christmas and the frenzy of
consumer spending that accompanies it, the businessmen
also cited as basis for their merry outlook the
generally stable macroeconomic environment, higher
remittances from overseas Filipinos, the harvest season,
the rise in foreign investments, and even the
availability of new and enhanced business strategies.
The
general stability of the broad economy was best
indicated by low inflation, stable interest rates and
the still-appreciating peso, according to Deputy BSP
Governor Diwa C. Guinigundo.
But the
same optimism had been sapped by a number of factors,
including the possible slowdown of the
US
economy from problems hounding its housing market, the
unabated increases in crude oil prices and the political
noise generated by domestic confrontational politics, he
said.
“Year-on-year the CI was slightly lower by 1.4 index
points as the number of respondents who indicated “no
change” in sentiment was increased. Nonetheless, the
current level is the second-highest level since it
breached the 40-percent-mark in Q4 2006,” Guinigundo
said.
There
was also a sense of optimism among businessmen for the
first quarter next year, the CI for the period having
also risen by 3.8 index-points year-on-year to 40.9.
Guinigundo said this was because business was seen to
slacken after the long Christmas frenzy.
The
survey also found exporters as the least bullish among
businessmen with the peso gaining value in a period when
the US dollar was steadily weakening.
Guinigundo said the BES, which helps them discover the
mood and direction of the economy, is national in scope
and taps the views of the top 5,000 corporations as
listed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. |
