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WITH
oil-price increases screeching to a halt, the National
Economic and Development Authority (Neda) expects oil
prices to start dropping to around P44 to P45 per liter
within this or next week.
In a
radio interview, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph
Recto said international oil prices are now back to the
January 2008 levels of lower than $90 a barrel. With
that, oil firms may now be able to implement rollbacks.
Recto
said that based on his rough calculations, diesel prices
in January were at P38 a liter and that the exchange
rate at that time was at P41 to a dollar. To date, the
exchange rate is at P47 to the greenback, which
represented around a 15-percent increase. With that, he
said, pump prices should now be at the P44-a-liter
level.
While
some oil firms may employ a wait-and-see attitude before
imposing a rollback, Recto remains confident that retail
prices of oil will go down in just a matter of time.
And
while many are concerned about the economy’s performance
amid the global financial crisis, he remains confident
the crisis could actually help temper inflation and keep
prices of oil and rice low until 2009.
“We are
[expect] that next year, the oil prices will more or
less stay at this level. So if there is anything
positive happening from the global credit crisis, it
will tame inflation; prices of oil and rice will go
down,” Recto said partly in Filipino.
With
this, he believes transport groups, including airlines,
can now heave a sigh of relief and stop pushing new fare
hikes.
The
overall effect of tempered oil and food prices has
already been felt in the country, as the National
Statistics Office (NSO) reported inflation in September
at only 11.9 percent, lower than the 12.5 percent in
August.
While
the September figure is still in double-digit,
economists said this may be caused by the base effect of
the inflation rate a year ago. In September 2007, the
inflation rate in the country was pegged at 2.7 percent.
With
that, University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P)
economist Prof. Victor Abola expects inflation to
average 9.7 percent in 2008, but to stay in double-digit
realm until December.
“The
outlook for the rest of the year is for the inflation
rate to slide further, but we don’t see it going
single-digit [year-on-year] until the first quarter of
2009. We expect it to average 9.7 percent for 2008,”
Abola said in a statement.
“Crude
oil prices have continued to trend lower as the world
economy—not just the United States—slows down. This
augurs well for the inflation front, but bad news for
growth prospects,” he explained.
NSO data
showed that slowdown in the annual inflation rates of
food, beverage and tobacco, and services were pegged at
16.2 percent and 12.1 percent in September from 17.2
percent and 13.5 percent, respectively.
Meanwhile, inflation for clothing was higher at 4.8
percent in September from 4.6 percent in August; housing
and repairs, 5.2 percent from 5.0 percent; fuel, light
and water, 8.5 percent from 7.4 percent; and
miscellaneous items, 3.5 percent from 3.3 percent.
“The
country’s annual inflation rate for food alone continued
to improve at 17 percent in September from 18.1 percent
in August,” the NSO said in a statement.
Data
showed that annual price hike in rice slid to 37.3
percent in September from 45.1 percent in August; corn,
26.8 percent from 31.5 percent; eggs, 6.1 percent from
6.2 percent; and fruits and vegetables, 15.9 percent
from 16.1 percent. |
