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Joseph
Estrada’s house arrest is lonely, yet hardly austere.
The former President, on trial for stealing government
funds, cruises around his 15-hectare estate in a golf
cart past penned ostriches and a lagoon stocked with
swans, ducks and flamingos.
“I just
sit here counting my ducks,” Estrada said in an
interview August 23.
Six
years after being ousted from power by mass street
protests, Estrada’s duck-counting days are coming to a
close. A court is expected to deliver a decision
Wednesday that will either clear him of “plundering”
government money or send him to jail.
Whatever
the outcome, the decision may challenge the authority of
President Arroyo, who succeeded Estrada and then had him
arrested and tried. If the former film star is found
guilty, some supporters say they’ll take to the streets
to protest. An acquittal, meanwhile, would make it
appear Estrada was a victim of political persecution.
Estrada
“is the only political personality who still has the
capacity to subvert Arroyo’s legitimacy,” said Rey
Trillana, a political science professor at the
University of Santo Tomas.
A guilty
decision would be particularly hazardous for the
President, he said. “The reaction of his supporters is
something that even Estrada cannot control.’’
Estrada
won the presidency in 1998 in the largest landslide in
Philippine history, with solid backing from the
country’s poor. He was impeached in November 2000 on
charges of corruption. When political allies in the
Senate blocked evidence from being produced in the
trial, street protests, largely by the middle class,
swelled on the site of the 1986 People Power revolt that
ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
After
three days, generals in the army abandoned Estrada, and
the Supreme Court swore in Arroyo as President on
January 20, 2001. Estrada left the presidential palace,
although he never resigned his office.
“They
deprived me of the best performance of my life: the last
three years of my service to my people,” Estrada said in
the interview.
Estrada
was one of 155 witnesses in his six-year trial, during
which he was held in a hospital and in police and
military camps from 2001 to 2003 and then was allowed
house arrest in 2004. Both the government prosecutor and
Estrada’s lawyers said they presented strong cases.
The
police are ready for protests after the verdict is
announced. “We have to look at all possibilities: A
threat to his life, something of a civil disturbance or
demonstrations,” said Philippine National Police
spokesman Samuel Pagdilao.
“We
don’t want an uprising,” said Sen. Loren Legarda, who
ran unsuccessfully for vice president in 2004. “But
remember that when he was jailed in 2001, there was a
massive outcry” by the poor people who supported
Estrada.
If the
court finds Estrada not guilty, there’s less likelihood
of street protests, and Mrs. Arroyo will probably be
relieved, said Mir Tillah, a professor at the University
of Asia and the Pacific. At the same time, such a
verdict will challenge the justice of Estrada’s 2001
overthrow.
Acquittal will be “a slap in the face” for the
government and for everyone who participated in the
protests against Estrada, Tillah said.
Another
possibility is that the court will declare a mistrial
and try Estrada again, Tillah said.
In the
interview at his estate, Estrada maintained that he was
ousted unconstitutionally and that “the presidential
clock stopped” with three-and-a-half years left of his
term. If acquitted, Estrada said, he is prepared to
return to the presidency if there is a “clamor” from the
people.
Estrada
returning to office is an unlikely scenario, Tillah
said. The 2001 People Power revolt that ousted him “was
a movement against a president who had lost legitimacy,
and once you lose it, you can’t recover it easily,” he
said.
Asked if
he is too old to resume the presidency, Estrada said:
“Ronald Reagan first became president at the age of 70.
I’m only 70, so I still have a chance.” |
