|
Here’s a
contrarian question concerning the 2008 Beijing
Olympics: Who cares?
Sure,
it’s a big deal—the media are telling us so. One year
out, we’re being bombarded by countdown articles about
how grand and historic the event will be: massive
construction projects, an army of foreign journalists,
Steven Spielberg-directed pageantry and, oh yeah, some
sporting events.
China
sees the games as a coming-out party, a showcase for its
rising stature as a world power. Critics see them as a
perfect opportunity to push China for greater openness,
more tolerance for dissent and to become a better global
citizen.
All
parties may have to get used to disappointment. The
Beijing Olympics could result in none of the above.
First,
barring anyone who has been living in a cave the past 10
years, who really thinks
China
needs a coming-out party? The place is, well, out.
Really out. From television news items to magazine
covers to Zhang Ziyi movies to tour companies, one can’t
escape Asia’s No. 2 economy.
For
businesspeople and investors, China is becoming the
center of their world. A truck driver in
Waco,
Texas,
or a factory worker in Krakow, Poland, would be just as
hard-pressed to live a China-free life. Just ask Baton
Rouge, Louisiana-based journalist Sara Bongiorni, whose
recent book A Year Without ‘Made in
China’ demonstrates
the futility of existing without Chinese products.
Enough
hype
This
isn’t a criticism of
China’s
fast-growing role in the global economy, just a reminder
that the nation of 1.3 billion people hardly needs more
attention or hype from investors, journalists or social
commentators. A coming-out party for China would be as
much a milestone as Japan suddenly announcing it makes
cars.
Critics
should lower their hopes, too. The way many are watching
China is akin to anxious parents staring at their infant
and expecting it to stand at any moment and walk across
the living room. For better or worse, China’s political
system in 2009 will probably look a lot like 2007.
Activists should use the Olympics to make China
uncomfortable. If the Communist Party keeps a straight
face using the slogan “One World, One Dream,” it’s going
to get grief for its policies on Tibet, Taiwan and the
widening gap between rich and poor Chinese.
‘Genocide Olympics’
Sudan
is another issue. China is finding it increasingly
difficult to finesse the point that, in its quest for
energy, it’s helping shore up some dodgy African
regimes. Hence the campaign by actress Mia Farrow and
others to brand next year’s event the “Genocide
Olympics.” It’s working; a Google search of “China,
Genocide Olympics” came up with 1.2 million entries.
Things
will only get worse, particularly if China tries to
clamp down further on the media. Mainlanders generally
can’t search the Internet for news about Beijing 2008
protests and scattered calls for boycotts. That’s an
economic problem, too. How does a nation that needs more
entrepreneurship empower innovators while controlling
the flow of information?
China
also must accept the politicization of the games. If
they were held in the US, Iraq protests would be
omnipresent. As the world saw in
Berlin
1936 (Adolf Hitler’s propaganda), Helsinki 1952 (start
of the Cold War), Melbourne 1956 (boycotts), Mexico City
1968 (the “Black Power” salute), Munich 1972 (Israeli
athletes killed), Montreal 1976 (China managed to keep
Taiwan from competing), Moscow 1980 (boycotts), Los
Angeles 1984 (boycotts), the games ARE political.
No
‘panacea’
Athletes
often are not. Will Olympians hoping to cash in on their
performances in Beijing risk upsetting corporate
sponsors to try to humiliate
China?
Some may; most probably won’t. Ditto for the companies
shelling out big bucks to promote the event.
It’s
telling that even Jacques Rogge, president of the
International Olympic Committee, is making the rounds
saying the Beijing games “can only be a catalyst for
change, not a panacea.”
Given
the magnitude of
China’s
development needs, the odds favor a go-slow approach
toward personal freedom in the most populous nation.
China’s currency policy alone shows how much stability
matters to Communist Party bigwigs. A stronger yuan
would tame inflation pressures and give policymakers
more control over growth. Yet creating jobs for the
masses—and not rocking the boat—is seen as more
important.
Stability is key
Stability and control will be as important to China a
year from now as they were a year ago. Perhaps even more
so, as worsening pollution upsets rural China and the
nation’s wealth gap widens further. Also,
China’s
quality-control crisis may lead to even less press
freedom.
The move
by Mattel Inc., the world’s biggest toy maker, to recall
18.2 million Chinese-made products is a reminder that
this is a growing and potentially devastating problem
for the economy. The last thing China wants is
journalists, domestic or foreign, trying to uncover new
examples of fake, defective or contaminated products on
a daily basis.
The
summer games last a couple of weeks and happen every
four years. It may be a big deal that they are taking
place in China—just not as big as many claim. |
