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    Hewlett-Packard profit may beat
    estimates as sales outpace Dell
    By Connie Guglielmo
    Bloomberg
     

    SAN FRANCISCO—Hewlett-Packard Co. may report profit that topped analysts’ estimates after the world’s largest personal-computer maker won customers with new laptops and widened its lead over Dell Inc.

    Earnings probably rose to 66 cents a share in the third quarter ended July 31, excluding some acquisition costs, from 52 cents a year earlier, according to the average of 22 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. At least seven analysts say profit may have exceeded the average projection.

    Sales may have gained 9.7 percent to $24 billion, according to the survey, putting the Palo Alto, California-based company within reach of $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time. Hewlett-Packard beat Dell on laptop orders while costs for parts such as memory chips fell, boosting profit.

    “They’ve got a really good lead, and I think they will maintain that lead for a few years,’’ said Chuck Jones, a San Francisco-based analyst for Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management, which manages $17 billion including Hewlett-Packard shares. Jones also owns the stock personally.

    The company is scheduled to report results Thursday after the close of regular New York trading. Spokeswoman Emma McCulloch declined to comment. Dell spokesman Bob Pearson also declined to comment.

    Hewlett-Packard has beaten analysts’ profit estimates each quarter since Mark Hurd took over as chief executive officer in April 2005. This year may be the second straight in which the company tops International Business Machines Corp. in sales.

    Hewlett-Packard’s worldwide PC shipments rose 37 percent in the three months ended in June, while Dell’s fell 4.9 percent, according to Framingham, Massachusetts, researcher IDC. Hewlett-Packard probably had the biggest PC shipment growth in 10 quarters, said Andrew Neff, a Bear Stearns analyst in New York.

    In the US, the world’s largest PC market, Hewlett-Packard’s shipments rose 26 percent last quarter and Dell’s dropped 11 percent, IDC said.

    Hurd, 50, won laptop buyers by putting new models in retail stores so consumers could try them out, a strategy Dell is mimicking. Hewlett-Packard has a bigger sales network than rivals, supplying more than 100,000 retailers, and gets more benefit from its in-store marketing efforts than competitors.

    Hewlett-Packard stock has reached the highest in almost seven years last week, $49.84, and has climbed 12 percent this year.

    Round Rock, Texas-based Dell has added 4.8 percent this year.

    Since he joined Hewlett-Packard, Hurd has eliminated three layers of management, hired hundreds of salespeople and boosted marketing spending and perks for retailers that promote Hewlett-Packard’s products. He also cut jobs, merged data centers and pared real estate to chop more than $3 billion in costs.

    “What we’re seeing is the results of several years of reorganization and restructuring that all seems to have come together,’’ said David Daoud, a PC analyst for IDC.

    Michael Dell, who reclaimed the CEO title at his namesake company in January, backed away from a strategy he held more than 20 years of selling directly to buyers. In June he started to use retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. to reach consumers.

    After spending $150 million last year to boost service because customers complained of long delays when they called for help, Dell still saw its consumer-satisfaction level drop this year, according to a University of Michigan survey released this week. Hewlett-Packard’s score rose.

    Hewlett-Packard continued to win printer sales from Dell and Lexmark International Inc., said UBS AG analyst Benjamin Reitzes.

    Printer makers typically sell their products at a loss to promote profitable supplies such as ink. Hewlett-Packard boosted its customer base over the past year with price cuts and may now reap the rewards with a 10-percent gain in supply sales, said New York-based Reitzes. He rates the shares “buy’’ and said he doesn’t own them.

    If the gains hold through year-end, Hurd may be able to put to rest questions about the wisdom of Hewlett-Packard’s $18.9 billion acquisition of Compaq Computer Corp., engineered by his predecessor Carly Fiorina in 2002.

    “They do have major earnings momentum, and are finally seeing cost savings as a result of the merger,’’ said Barry Ritholtz, director of equity research for New York-based Fusion IQ, which doesn’t own the stock.

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