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OSLO—There is a clear lesson to be drawn from the
unsuccessful World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations
held in Geneva from July 21 to 29: The world is
witnessing a shift of power in the arena of the world
economy and world trade. New states with growing
economies and political ambitions are asserting
themselves.
For nine
days, I was part of a series of contests of strength in
today’s world of power politics. But rather than on a
battlefield, they were taking place around the
negotiating table, where rights and obligations in world
trade are meted out.
For
seven years, the countries of the world have been
negotiating an agreement intended to promote trade, cut
tariffs and remove other barriers to trade, with a
special emphasis on opening up opportunities for
developing countries, which were, for the first time,
the focus of a round of trade negotiations. The rich
countries were to take on greater obligations, and the
poorest countries were to be shielded. The developing
countries were to be helped to build their own capacity
for trade—aid for trade. Tariffs for fish and industrial
products were to be cut.
And, for
the first time, agriculture was put firmly on the
agenda: the rich countries were to cut domestic
production subsidies, export subsidies and tariffs.
Countries with rapidly growing economies were to be
given better market access.
The WTO
was to find a package solution to all these issues. The
organization has 153 members and makes decisions on the
basis of consensus. This is a hugely complex process in
which all countries must make a contribution and all
gain something. There have been many ups and downs over
the years.
In
Geneva, we met for one last effort. India and China were
demanding a safeguard mechanism that would be triggered
by a surge in agricultural imports. The United States
felt the proposed conditions that would trigger the
mechanism were too lenient, and so would limit trade.
The United States and other countries, including
Australia, New Zealand and Brazil, want increased market
access for exports from their efficient agricultural
sectors. Many developing countries are justifiably
concerned about the consequences. We tried to find a
compromise, but the United States and India refused to
give way. WTO director general Pascal Lamy had to
recognize that we had come to a dead end, at least for
now.
Even
more important, we could have paved the way for the next
major round of negotiations, on climate change, in
Copenhagen next year. In negotiations focusing on
development and poverty, the rich countries must be
prepared to shoulder greater burdens while the
developing countries must accept their share of
responsibility.
Perhaps
I was present at the collapse of a world order. But, at
the same time, I witnessed the birth of a new world
order where all countries are present and demand their
rights, and that requires an almost unlimited
willingness to negotiate, make compromises and find
sustainable solutions.
Only a
few years ago, it was the United States and the European
Union that decided the outcome of such conflicts. If
they agreed on a solution, it was generally accepted.
Those days are over. Now, nobody can ignore countries
like India and Brazil. Together, they speak on behalf of
about 100 developing countries.
And, for
the first time, there is a newcomer in the circle of
major countries that call the shots—China. China speaks
as a developing country and, together with India, it has
been demanding rights for the developing countries.
Even
though these two countries have lifted millions of
people out of poverty, there are, for example, many more
people living in poverty in India than in the whole of
Africa. But there is much more to China. In private
talks with colleagues from Asia, I have heard that it is
not exports from the United States and the EU they fear
most, but the Chinese export juggernaut.
At the
other end of the scale, countries in West Africa are
counting on the WTO to pressure the United States into
reducing the high level of subsidies for exports of
cotton, which are wiping out the cotton industry in poor
African countries.
We
recognize that the situation is serious, but responsible
leaders must also look to the future. We must not lose
everything we have achieved through negotiations over
the last seven years. None of the solutions we have
agreed on in this period will take effect until we reach
agreement on the entire package. So we must make every
effort to resume the negotiations once the dust has
settled from this collapse. And we must retain the WTO
as a key organization in the world economy.
Thus, we
must use our failure in Geneva as a spur for the
development of a world order in keeping with a new age;
one that involves more states, a shift in the power
balance and essential new tasks relating to climate
change, the environment, labor rights and the fight
against poverty.
Jonas Gahr Store is foreign minister of Norway. |