DEVELOPED and developing countries must pose a 10-fold increase in carbon productivity in the coming decades in order to stabilize greenhouse gases (GHGs) and maintain economic growth in the world, according to a study released by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).

In the report titled “Curbing Climate Change and Sustaining Economic growth,” MGI and McKinsey’s Climate Change Special Initiative said a 10-fold increase in carbon productivity is similar to the magnitude of labor-productivity increases of the Industrial Revolution and could be termed a “carbon revolution.”

The MGI report said carbon productivity must increase to $7,300 gross domestic product (GDP) per ton of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e) by 2050 from around $740 GDP per ton of CO2e today. CO2e is a common measure of GHGs.

If a carbon revolution does not happen, MGI warned that the consequences will be stark. In order to meet the abatement target of reducing GHGs, each person on the planet has a carbon budget of 6 kilograms of CO2e every day.

This would mean, according to MGI, that each person will be forced to choose between a 40-kilometer car ride, a day of air conditioning, buying two new T-shirts without driving to the shop or eating only two meals.

“Without a major boost in carbon productivity, stabilizing greenhouse-gas emissions would require a major drop in lifestyle for developed countries and would hinder economic development in low-income countries,” MGI said.

However, MGI said a carbon revolution must be achieved in one-third of the time that economic transformation took in the Industrial Revolution if the world is to maintain current levels of economic growth while ensuring that CO2e levels of below 500 parts per million volume (ppmv) are kept.

Further, in the report, MGI said that around 450 ppmv must also be maintained in the long term.

This level, MGI said, is the maximum that can be allowed without significant irreversible risks to the climate.

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Carbon productivity must increase 10-fold to stabilize greenhouse gases

DEVELOPED and developing countries must pose a 10-fold increase in carbon productivity in the coming decades in order to stabilize greenhouse gases (GHGs) and maintain economic growth in the world, according to a study released by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI).