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Let’s be
blunt about it. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton had
bungled her campaign to lose to Illinois Sen. Barack
Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Clinton
is the loser in three aspects of a political campaign:
issue management (or message development and
sustenance), fundraising and field operations.
While
Obama had a simpler and sustainable message from the
very start of the political campaign,
Clinton had flip-flopping messages that tended more to confuse than
illuminate the issues confronting the presidency.
Conveying the new politics of hope, Obama had talked
about the message of change, of uniting the various
racial strains to bring about political, economic and
social changes in the United States.
He had
spoken about an end to the Iraq War and bringing home
the US forces there, an equally simpler and sustainable
universal health care and ridding Washington of lobby
groups, which, he believed, have been largely
responsible for setting a different agenda in governance
and policymaking.
While
she and Obama have the same basic stand on major issues
(they are both Democrats, anyway),
Clinton, in contrast, had taken a different path in message
development, choosing experience as her initial core
message. She would be the chief executive and commander
in chief, who would be ready since day one in office and
would answer the phone at
3 a.m.
But this
message and the ensuing persona her campaign had wanted
to cultivate had disastrous effects, as the American
public was led to believe that she was the establishment
candidate.
Obama
took an easy time to debunk
Clinton’s
message and said: “As the first lady, she only had tea
with the leading dignitaries of the world and she has
called it experience.” The electorate did not bite her
message, as shown by her reverses in the
Iowa and
North
Carolina primaries and the virtual deadlock after the
February 5 “Super Tuesday,” where 27 states had
simultaneous primaries and caucuses.
She was
forced to change her core message and persona.
Initially, she was the “fighter” in the mode of British
leader Margaret Thatcher, a leader who exuded so much
determination, courage and fortitude amid all odds.
Later, she was the “champion of the working class” who
drank beer and whisky with blue-collar workers, while
Obama was the “elitist.”
Clinton
had successes with those messages and personas, as shown
by the support of blue-collar workers, the least
educated and the elderly in several swing states like
Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the hillbillies, too, in West
Virginia and Kentucky, but it was too late.
Obama
was ahead in pledged delegates, when, after the Super
Tuesday, he had posted 12 consecutive victories,
especially in the caucus states, which Clinton earlier
ignored. Although she had won in several states in the
later stages of the five-month political campaign, she
did not have much chance to catch up with him.
In sum,
Clinton had misjudged the temper of the times, the
undergoing undercurrent, where millions of Americans
were clamoring for change. Obama had a much better
calculation and understanding of the current ferment, as
he had crafted messages that the American public had
long wanted to hear. In brief, Obama has much better
political sense than Clinton.
In
fundraising, the two presidential contenders had shown
deeply contrasting styles.
Clinton had the support of traditional and big-time party donors,
who had flocked to her since the start of the campaign
in the belief that her nomination would be a walk in the
park, an inevitable consequence of her entitlement as
the spouse of a former president. She typified the
traditional way to fund a political campaign.
But
Obama had shown better imagination in this area. Using
the Internet, he had tapped the grassroots—the millions
of supporters who had believed in his message of change
and hope, asking them to contribute at least $25 each,
which is the minimum amount under the federal law. His
supporters had responded positively, providing him with
a campaign kitty of at least $250 million, which matched
Hillary’s in every state.
In the
war of attrition that followed Super Tuesday, Obama’s
fundraising prowess did him well. With huge cash, his
campaign was outspending Hillary’s in every state.
Clinton had ended her campaign flat broke with at least
$30 million in debts to settle. In contrast, Obama is
now preparing to engage John McCain, the Republican
presumptive candidate, in the political campaign that
will lead to the November 4 general elections.
In field
operations,
Clinton
was dismal in every aspect of strategy and tactics. Her
campaign was characterized by infighting among her key
advisers and strategists. They could not settle on a
single message or approach.
Mark
Penn, the lobbyist who was the initial chief campaign
strategist, was more of a carpetbagger than a
knowledgeable strategist. Clinton had to fire him after
discovering he was lobbying for a US treaty with
Colombia, a treaty that Clinton herself opposes.
Penn was
said to have been ignorant of the fact that the
political campaign was not a winner-take-all situation
but a proportion game, where every candidate gets a
proportional number of pledged delegates on the basis of
the number of votes he/she gets in every state.
Clinton
did not have a sustainable post-Super Tuesday strategy.
Believing that she would win after February 5, her
campaign did not prepare for the long haul. Broke and
limping, her campaign could not handle the 12
consecutive victories posted by Obama. This had allowed
Obama to pad his lead in pledged delegates over Clinton,
an eventuality that had telling effects later in the
campaign.
Her
insistence that she was the better candidate against
McCain, as shown by what she considered a greater number
of popular votes than Obama’s, did not merit positive
response from the party “superdelegates,” or elected
Democratic officials and party insiders, who later
decided the nomination process by voting largely for
Obama.
Her
erratic mathematics to show she was leading Obama in
popular votes had shown a dysfunctional campaign, which
would twist facts and figures just to win the
nomination. Democratic leaders were quick enough to
remind Clinton that the nomination was not based on
popular votes but on the number of pledged delegates a
contender had.
Clinton’s
handling of Michigan and Florida, the two states that
held earlier primaries than scheduled and later punished
by the Democratic leadership, was dismal. When she
sensed she would have a hard time catching up with Obama,
she pushed hard for the inclusion of the votes in the
two rogue states, arguing that their voters should not
be disenfranchised.
But
Democratic superdelegates did not buy her arguments, as
they had declared their support for Obama. They were
turned off by her pesky persistence that no vote should
be counted for Obama in Michigan because he did not
enter his name in the ballot there. She was rebuffed
when the party rules committee decided it would be
inconceivable that no one in Michigan would vote for
Obama. It was another case of error in judgment on
Clinton’s part.
Had the
Clinton campaign showed diligence and discovered earlier
the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s “Damned America” sermon,
Obama would have been doomed—or finished—at the very
start of the political campaign. But Clinton’s
strategists, who were described as a bunch of “lazy,
arrogant and cocky” officials who believed the
nomination was hers for the taking, did not know
Wright’s sermon until March, although it was posted on
YouTube earlier.
This
goes to the show the whole world of difference in the
attitude of the two camps. The Clinton campaign was
basically traditional, establishment-oriented and
reactive, or even uncreative. Clinton had typified this
attitude, as shown by her combative and ruthless style,
slash-and-burn concept of politics, and scorched earth
or fight-to-the-end mentality.
In
contrast, Obama had demonstrated the lofty side of a
political campaign. He has negated the classical and
textbook approach, opting for the creative,
unconventional and uncharted ways, and shown a deeper
predilection for a noncombative approach. His was
calmness before a storm.
He
didn’t go to the extent of presenting himself as the
better and more electable candidate against McCain, as
what
Clinton
had done in vain. For him, the American public and the
superdelegates knew better. In short, he is the better
candidate, as reflected by his victory.
Despite
Clinton’s initial advantages, Obama had defeated her in
the long haul. His campaign was prescient enough to know
and understand that the political campaign could last
longer and they had prepared every inch for it.
Clinton
did not.
Obama is
the giant slayer. |