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SAN FRANCISCO—Will
the next iPhone be thinner, less expensive, perhaps
cooler? Will it come with new features such as video
chat and a global positioning system? For months,
speculation has swirled.
On
Monday Steve Jobs, Apple’s chief executive, was expected
to end the guessing game and unveil the second version
of the iPhone at Apple’s developer conference in San
Francisco.
This is
not just any updated product. Some analysts say the
future of Apple depends on the iPhone becoming a
consumer hit of global proportions.
“Apple’s
stock is going to go where the iPhone goes,” said Andy
Hargreaves, senior research analyst with Pacific Crest
Securities. “It’s the new growth driver.”
The key
question, they say, is whether Apple, based in
Cupertino, California, cuts the price of the iPhone to
boost sales dramatically.
On June
29, 2007, Apple began selling the 8-gigabyte iPhone at
$599 in the US with lines of people standing outside
Apple stores. It quickly became a cultural icon and
changed how people viewed mobile phones.
The
iPhone is a combination mobile phone, digital
entertainment player and an Internet surfing gadget.
The
phone hasn’t been without controversy. Fewer than three
months after it went on sale, Apple dropped the price
$200, angering customers who had already bought it. And
the company frustrated software developers by limiting
the kinds of development that could be done on the
phone. Meanwhile, some began using the phone “unlocked,”
without AT&T Inc.’s cell phone service, and with
software applications not approved by Apple. Some of
those people found their iPhones did not work after
Apple issued a software update.
Apple
has tried to mollify the grousing. Owners angry about
the price drop received a $100 credit. The company
created a software developer’s kit for making features
and services for the phone, and Jobs is expected Monday
to launch an iPhone “applications store” that will sell
programs made by outside developers.
That was
all prelude.
Riding
on the iPhone’s shoulders is the expectation that if it
is a big success, it could help drive more sales of
Macintosh computers, analysts say. The popularity of the
iPod is often credited with the rebound of the Mac
because of its “halo effect:” People who buy iPods have
a good experience with Apple products and consider
buying a Mac. But iPod sales have been flat in recent
quarters.
“If
Apple can build up iPhone volumes up, lets say 20, 30,
40 million, then you will have an iPhone halo effect,”
said Charlie Wolf, vice president at Needham & Co. “The
iPhone becomes the crucial driver to Apple’s continued
gains in PC market share. And that’s the real endgame in
my mind.”
The
consensus is Jobs will announce that iPhone 2 will
capitalize on a faster network as well as come with
software programs to make the phone more attractive to
both business users and consumers.
But the
chief way to boost sales would be a price drop, Wolf
said. Some analysts have speculated that Apple will sell
two versions of the phone—a higher priced one that
capitalizes on the faster network and a less expensive
one—as low as $99—for the older version of the phone.
In one
scenario, carriers, such as Apple’s US partner AT&T,
could subsidize the price of the phone, with the idea
that they would make up the subsidy from monthly
subscribers, analysts said.
Apple
“can reposition the current iPhone as an entry level
device,” said Charles Golvin, principal analyst at
Forrester Research. “That will make iPhone ownership
possible for people for whom the current pricing is too
great an impediment.”
But
Apple has to be careful that any price cut doesn’t
cannibalize its other products, such as the iPod Touch,
an iPod with Internet surfing capabilities, which is at
$499 for the 32-gigabyte version. Apple now sells an
8-gigabyte iPhone for $399 and a 16-gigabyte version for
$499.
Other
than a price cut, Apple has said it plans to boost the
iPhone to make it more business friendly. The hope is
that if more business people begin to use the iPhone,
they might begin to rally for Macintosh computers inside
the office.
“The
iPhone is viewed as a Trojan Horse into corporations,
where the Macintosh has barely penetrated,” Wolf said. |