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Blu-ray
may have won the format war, but it hasn’t won over many
consumers. Now was supposed to be the boom time for the
young video technology, pitched as a high-definition
replacement for the DVD. In January consumer-electronics
company
Toshiba dropped support of rival format HD DVD,
ending a competition over which technology would take
root in living rooms.
Both
technologies were designed to take advantage of the
picture resolutions offered by new, high-definition TV
sets with a level of image quality that the standard DVD
is not capable of producing. The new players for both
technologies can also play DVDs, and each format uses
media that looks like the same silver discs movie fans
have been popping into their DVD players for years. But
both require users to upgrade their movie collections
and buy the more expensive new discs if they want to
enjoy the benefits.
Though
neither Blu-ray nor HD DVD thrived last year, analysts
pinned the low sales on consumers who were reluctant to
spend money on a new technology that might turn out to
be the loser in the competition.
But even
without competition, Blu-ray is still struggling,
according to some recent sales figures. According to
research firm
NPD Group, sales of Blu-ray players dropped 40
percent from January to February. The next month, sales
rose 2 percent.
Blu-ray
Disc Association spokesman Andy Parsons said the NPD
numbers are misleading because they demonstrate a
weakness in player availability, not in consumer
interest. No manufacturer or retailer anticipated a
quick, decisive end to the format war, so none had a
deep supply of the players on hand when it became clear
that Blu-ray had won, he said.
“There
was a sudden increase in demand when there was a sudden
decrease in supply,” he said.
Brian
Lucas, a spokesman for
Best Buy, agreed. “When the format war ended, we
didn’t do as much promotion around [Blu-ray] as we
would’ve liked,” Lucas said. “We didn’t want to send
people into stores where there wouldn’t be players.”
Lucas said that player supply has been improving.
Other
research doesn’t make the coming months look much more
promising for the young format. A recent
Harris Poll found that only 9 percent of consumers
who don’t own a Blu-ray player have an interest in
buying one during the next year.
“I think
people are price-sensitive,” said Joan Barten Kline,
vice president of the interactive media and
entertainment division at Harris, who said she thinks
the number of buyers will be below that 9-percent
figure. In any case, she is among those buyers. She
recently went shopping for a movie player and found Blu-rays
selling at about $400 and DVD players selling at under
$100. She opted for the DVD.
Michael
Gartenberg, a consumer-electronics industry analyst with
research firm Jupiter, said the new format should be
selling faster by now, but “Blu-ray has not come up with
a compelling message for the mainstream consumer.”
“During
the course of the battle, consumers lost interest in
both formats,” he said.
While
many home-theater fans are skeptical that digital files
and download service could ever replace optical media
such as the DVD or Blu-ray discs, Gartenberg pointed to
products and services such as
AppleTV and on-demand services from cable companies
as examples of how consumers have more options than they
did when the DVD made its debut.
Just
this week DVD-rental service
Netflix and device manufacturer Roku created much
buzz with a new product they have devised that will make
movies available through a download.
Another
hurdle facing Blu-ray, analysts say, is the fact that
many DVD players can use sophisticated software to
improve the quality of the picture to near-high
definition. View the pictures of an “upconverted” DVD
next to that from a Blu-ray, and it’s still easy to tell
the difference, “but for most consumers who will never
see the two side by side, it’s good enough,” Gartenberg
said.
Today,
about 35 percent of DVD players sold are able to
upconvert, according to ABI Research. The firm estimates
that figure should be about 60 percent by 2013. To help
build excitement for the Blu-ray format, some studios
are including new features that they hope will spark
interest among consumers.
A new
wave of Blu-ray players will connect to the Internet,
opening up a new range of features that studios will be
able to offer. Pop in an upcoming Blu-ray release of
Sleeping Beauty, for example, and the main menu will
feature an image of the movie’s castle. Thanks to the
Internet connection, if it’s raining at your house in
Arlington, the Blu-ray software will produce rain on the castle on
your TV. For its recent release Walk Hard: The Dewey
Cox Story,
Sony has been giving Blu-ray owners access to
downloadable extra features that the studio didn’t have
time to include on the disc.
There’s
a catch, though: Not all Blu-ray players will be able to
take advantage of the new features that Web connectivity
allows.
With
that in mind, ABI Research analyst
Steve Wilson said it is just as well for consumers
if they don’t jump on the Blu-ray bandwagon yet.
Wilson
said he expects Blu-ray players to drop to $250 by this
holiday season and $200 by the end of 2009. That’s when
he expects mainstream adoption of the movie format to
catch on.
“We’re
still at the very early stage,” he said. “The players
don’t even support all the features yet.” |