France wants weaker euro
By Matthew Lynn
Bloomberg
France has spoken, and expects to be obeyed. That means it’s
time to start selling euros.
Last week, French Finance
Minister Thierry Breton said the euro’s surge had gone far
enough, and that he planned to stop it.
So, how is that going
to work exactly?
The truth is that it
won’t. Politicians can huff and puff all they want. They
can no more control the currency markets than they can the weather.
If France genuinely wanted to bring down the euro’s value
against the dollar, it would have to start contemplating some
radically different economic policies.
It isn’t hard
to understand why everyone is getting worried.
As the dollar has plunged,
the euro has been the main refuge for investors. This year, the
currency shared by 12 nations has risen about 8 percent against
the dollar. It was trading at $1.27 late last week. The strong
euro is likely to be around for a while yet.
In time, that is going
to hurt. “I am not surprised that a French politician is
the first to complain about the euro appreciation against the
US dollar,” said Dirk Chlench, an economist at Essen, Germany-based
Hypothekenbank in Essen AG, in an e-mailed response to questions.
“In contrast to Germany, where unit labor costs have sunk
in recent years, France has lost international price competitiveness.”
True enough. European
manufacturing has started to recover in recent months, and so
has business confidence. Yet a sustained rise in the euro will
knock that sideways.
Constraint on growth
“The euro zone lost competitiveness
to an alarming degree the last time the dollar/euro rate was above 1.30,”
Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Insinger de Beaufort Holdings SA in London,
said in a note to investors. “It is prudent to anticipate a similar constraint
on euro-zone growth, if, as seems likely, the euro continues to strengthen.”
The protests, therefore, are hardly
surprising. “We have to be attentive and we will do everything so that
this gap doesn’t get bigger,” Breton said in a speech in Paris last
week, referring to the euro’s rise.
European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner
Joaquin Almunia weighed into the debate telling reporters in Brussels the euro
area needed “soft or moderate movement in exchange rates” and “disorderly
movements” must be avoided.
It is easy to say. The harder bit
is making it happen.
After all, the French government,
in particular, has done just about everything to make the euro-area economy
as unattractive to global investors as possible.
Capital flight triggers
Stop and think about the things that
usually cause investors to flee. How about unleashing a wave of economic protectionism,
preventing takeovers and protecting industries?
It’s already been tried and
it hasn’t worked yet.
How about riots in the streets over
flexible working hours, and a government that caves in to pressure from a few
militant protesters to abandon a law that would have created new jobs?
That’s been tried as well, and
still investors keep buying the euro.
Maybe a stern anti-inflationary hawk
could be appointed to run the European Central Bank—someone who will insist
on pushing up interest rates just as the first green shoots of recovery seem
to be flowering. Or how about getting a political has-been from the 1970s to
write a new constitution for the EU, then watch it get thrown out by voters
across the continent, plunging the euro into a potential political crisis?
Bother. We already gave the ECB job
to Jean-Claude Trichet, and that hasn’t stopped the currency’s appreciation
either. As for Valery Giscard d’Estaing’s constitution, the less
said about that the better.
US lessons
The euro area, especially France,
has done as much as it could to deter people from buying its currency. Perhaps
it should think about taking a completely different direction. The US could
give some valuable lessons on how to get a currency down.
The euro-area governments could try
embarking on a massive borrowing spree, causing huge budget deficits, so that
vast amounts of foreign capital have to be imported every year.
They could shut down all the factories,
import everything from China, and have massive trade gaps—rather than
persist in making lots of things and selling them all around the world, as the
Germans still do.
Another option might be to encourage
people to spend more money on their credit cards and get banks to lend recklessly
for the purchase of homes that are becoming more overvalued.
They might even want to start invading
countries, embarking on long, costly and dangerous occupations of hostile territory.
Dollar as refuge
It might not be that healthy in the
long term. Yet it would certainly bring the euro back down, and investors might
even start fleeing to the relative safety of the dollar.
More seriously, politicians shouldn’t
try to manipulate the currency markets. Instead, they need to create a more
flexible, open economy. And the region needs to cut interest rates to help its
own expansion—and to reduce the imbalances that are behind the dollar’s
fall and the euro’s rise.
That would certainly be more effective
than just telling the markets what to do. That won’t make any difference
to the value of the euro at all.
Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed
are his own.
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