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THE
ranks of the optimistic businessmen in the Philippines
are thinning some more, their number reduced in terms of
the confidence index to only 12.6 percent in the second
quarter this year versus 29.9 percent in the first
quarter and 46.4 percent a year ago.
Deputy
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Diwa
Guinigundo said at a briefing Thursday this was the
second quarter in a series that the index had fallen.
“The
lower index is consistent with the broadly more cautious
sentiment of businesses and consumers in many developed
economies,” Guinigundo’s boss, BSP Governor Amando
Tetangco Jr., said in a statement.
He
attributed the creeping pessimism to concerns over a
possible recession in the United States—which is the
country’s largest trading partner—to volatile and high
oil prices, to the rising price of food and services
costs, high input or raw-materials costs and even to the
petitions for higher wages, as well as local political
noise.
Expectations of increases in nonoil commodity prices in
global markets also contributed to the weaker business
outlook, Tetangco added.
According to Guinigundo, economic sectors covered by the
survey posted positive indices, though, indicating that
the number of optimists among businessmen outnumbered
the pessimists among them.
Nevertheless, the decline in business sentiment was
evident across-the-board.
For
instance, while the confidence index for the
construction sector and that of services stood at 25.5
percent and 22.4 percent, respectively, both indices
were lower compared with the previous quarter.
The
businessmen were not so gung-ho, either, about access to
credit going forward even though its index remains in
positive territory—3 percent in the second quarter from
6.6 percent three months earlier and 9 percent a year
ago.
Guinigundo said this was the lowest index for credit
access since the first quarter of 2007.
Despite
the anemic outlook, businessmen expect to hire more
employees during the quarter and see themselves doing so
again in the third.
The
employment index remained at positive 11.4 percent,
lower than that of a quarter earlier, but indicative of
anticipated continued hiring of more workers in the
succeeding quarter.
As
usual, tough competition from local and foreign entities
was listed as a major business restraint during the
survey period lasting from April 7 to May 6 this year.
The
business people expect inflation to move up in the
second and third quarters, consistent with BSP
projection.
They
also see the peso weakening, also consistent with
projection. |
