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THE
Philippine central bank, struggling to spur growth and
slow the fastest inflation in three years, is reluctant
to raise interest rates on concern it could boost the
peso.
“Tightening could lead to a wider interest-rate
differential that could attract capital inflows,”
Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said in a speech delivered
Wednesday. That could exert “more pressure on the
exchange rate,” damp exports and slow growth, he said in
the speech e-mailed to Bloomberg News last night.
The
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ key interest rate is at a
16-year low of 5 percent, and surging inflation amid
prospects of slower growth have created a “monetary
policy dilemma,” Tetangco said. Rising oil and food
prices may hurt consumer spending and slow growth in the
Philippines to as little as 6.1 percent this year,
Finance Secretary Gary Teves said this week.
“The
central bank is signaling it prefers growth while
inflation is driven by external factors,” said Marvin
Fausto, who oversees about $6 billion in assets as chief
investment officer at Manila-based Banco de Oro Unibank
Inc. That’s “doing the right thing because by tightening
now, you’ll only choke the economy.”
Governments in Asia, where about 600 million people
survive on less than $1 a day, are torn between the need
to rein in surging prices and shoring up growth as a US
slowdown hurts demand for the region’s exports. The
International Monetary Fund last month lowered its
forecast for global growth this year and said there’s a
25- percent chance of a world recession.
The
peso, last year’s best performer in the region, fell to
its lowest level in six months. The currency slid to
P43.24 per dollar at the close of trading in Manila.
Three-year bond yields fell to the lowest in two weeks
on speculation the central bank won’t raise its key
rate.
“In the
face of slowing growth and rising inflationary
pressures, it would be difficult for monetary policy to
be accommodative,” Tetangco said.
Asian
central banks have less room to cut interest rates to
spur growth as the US economy slows because inflation in
the region is accelerating, Subir Gokarn, Asia-Pacific
chief economist at Standard & Poor’s, said April 30.
(Bloomberg) |